19 investors, family offices, and entrepreneurs from the US, Germany, South Korea, Malaysia, and Australia (including one returnee from our first tour) joined us for a 2.5-day, event-packed tour that included conversations with founders and C-suite of:

• Minimax (0100.HK), one of China’s leading AI players

• Black Lake Technologies, China’s leading manufacturing AI company (a day before they officially announced their Unicorn-status Series-D fundraise)

• Fourier Robotics, a leading robotic maker with roots in healthcare exoskeleton

• A conversation about the future of autonomous driving with an angel investor of Pony.ai, one of China’s leading L4 robotaxi companies, followed by a test ride

• A frank presentation by Baiguan’s tech lead on the pros and cons of various domestic and foreign AI models from a user’s perspective.

• A visit to the Shanghai Foundational Model Center (SMC), a leading incubator of Chinese AI startups, with presentations by Cyber Partner (robotics implementation specialist), IO-AI Tech (robotics data collection), Nieta (AI-native virtual characters), and Investmate (AI-native personal finance tool)

There are many takeaways from our participants. Here are the top 5 common ones I find.

#1 A new generation of entrepreneurs and local talents has finally arrived

Most of the participants are very impressed by the startup founders we have met. One participant, who used to work as a senior executive at a Mag7 firm, told me this cohort of Chinese founders was very different from what he was used to.

One unique feature this time was that every founder we met this time spoke fluent English, so we didn’t even bother with translation software or hiring a translator. Perhaps this was because we limited this tour to Shanghai, China’s most cosmopolitan city, but I promise this was not by design.

Being English-speaking does not mean China is relying more on overseas talents, though. One participant was concerned that recent US restrictions on foreign college students would stifle innovation in China, only to find that, in fact, most of the talent (and founders) in China’s leading AI companies (Minimax, Moonshot, DeepSeek, and Zhipu, etc.) are locally educated and trained.

Therefore, speaking English or not is not the real differentiator of this generation of talents. A senior executive from Minimax commented that the unique feature of this new generation of founders is their self-confidence, which stems from their having read and studied the same things at the same pace as their global peers.

#2 Autonomous driving: technology is ready, but policymakers are balancing the medium and long-term

We invited an early investor of Pony.ai and received a comprehensive review of the past and future of autonomous driving in China. The core conclusion was the same as ours 2 weeks ago: the technology is ready, yet Beijing is juggling between the short-term policy pressure arising from unemployment and the long-term necessity coming from a rapidly aging population.

As a result, Beijing is adopting a “do but don’t shout” approach, encouraging localities to keep rolling out pilot zones, preserving an overall supportive environment for the industry while also deliberately putting a lid on mass media coverage and debates.

Some US guests found this conclusion counterintuitive. One private investor who came from Miami, where Waymo already had a big presence, expected China to be pursuing robotaxis aggressively and was thus surprised by the apparent conservative attitude.

This conclusion was also corroborated by our own test ride experience.

In a slightly laughable episode, our group started hailing robotaxis at a location that was too remote and too sparsely populated. Consequently, on average, we waited around 10 minutes for a robotaxi, which took another 15-20 minutes to arrive and pick us up.

This was a major embarrassment for the us the organizers, but our wonderful participants, laughing and lively chatting with each other while standing by the roadside, found it an informative footnote to the authentic state of robotaxis in China.

#3 Robotics: solving the data bottleneck

By now, it’s common knowledge that despite the hype about humanoids in China, we haven’t really solved the “big brain” problem yet. The robots can perform specific, pre-designed tasks, but their capabilities are not sufficiently generalized.

In short, the body has outpaced the brain.

A key bottleneck to achieving the “big brain” problem is the lack of training data, and a “bottleneck”, in the context of today, represents opportunities.

That’s why we were amazed by a presentation by IO-AI Tech, a startup that’s laser-focused on collecting human-centric data for its clients.

Moreover, at the data collection center in one of the robotics firms, where we were not allowed to take photos, we saw an army of engineers physically train robots to do housework (such as picking up fruits and closing wardrobes) by repeating the action over and over again using remote grippers. We debated among ourselves whether this type of training is efficient and whether simulated training is obviously a better way to collect data.

On the other hand, we also wondered whether this inefficiency can actually be “good,” and whether human trainers for robots are the present-day assembly line workers, providing a crucial employment cushion.

#4 Manufacturing is China’s key strength

If data is the key to achieving the big robotics brain, then China, with its strong manufacturing base, clearly has an advantage in mass-producing robots to collect more data.

A key highlight of this trip was our visit to Black Lake Technologies, which specializes in cloud-based manufacturing execution systems and collaborative platforms for the manufacturing sector. Founded in 2016 and headquartered in Shanghai, the company is often cited as a pioneer in bringing “consumer-grade” internet technology to the traditional factory floor.

The company was co-founded by Yuxiang Zhou, a former Wall Street banker. His leadership story is well-known in the Chinese tech scene. After an initial startup failure, he famously spent time working on factory floors to understand the real-world pain points of manufacturing workers before launching Black Lake.

Last year, Yuxiang became one of the very few CEOs of a medium-sized company to attend Premier Li Qiang’s symposiums. To be sure, Black Lake is not Xiaomi or BYD, and there are tens of thousands of startups of a similar size in China, so its presence at such a high-profile symposium is living proof of the importance of manufacturing to China’s decision-makers.

#5 A new private-public partnership is emerging

This brings us to the role of the state, a subject no tour to China can bypass.

The relationship between the private and government sectors is an implicit theme in this tour.

On one hand, as seen in the autonomous driving sector, shrewd and conservative regulatory policies have acted as a bottleneck for mass commercialization.

On the other hand, the state-run SMC incubator in Shanghai demonstrated an aggressive pro-growth stance, providing free rent, subsidized AI compute tokens, and streamlined regulatory 'concierge' services.

As the economic engine pivots from a government-centric real estate model toward private-sector-led innovation, we are witnessing a 'new normal' for governance: the most successful local authorities will be those that act as support platform providers rather than central planners that meddle.

Future tours

After two successful tours, we at Baiguan are now confident in our ability to deliver in-depth, highly memorable business-themed study tours for a global audience.

In the future, we plan to partner with more vertical experts and host more specialized theme tours across sectors such as biotech, energy, manufacturing, and high-end consumption.

Our ultimate vision for this is that whenever you come to China for something else (such as a business conference), you would consider checking Baiguan’s event calendar to see whether you can fit an enriching tour into your itinerary.

Stay tuned!

Subscribe now

Last month, we launched Baiguan Pro—our monthly view on Chinese assets, themes, and sectors we are closely following, as well as insights from our own data at BigOne Lab.

Each month, we pair macro data and BigOne Lab’s proprietary indices with a structured, directional read on where Chinese assets stand and what we’re doing about it.

If you haven’t upgraded yet: we’re offering a free upgrade to the Baiguan Pro tier for all existing paid subscribers through the end of Q2. Just reply to this email with the address associated with your subscription.

This Month: Our View on Chinese Assets

Our directional view on China equity allocation remains consistent with last month. Importantly, our proprietary China Resident Risk Appetite Index (CRRAI) shows continued improvement in Chinese households’ risk appetite.

In the March 2026 reading, the CRRAI composite index recorded -0.08, a further recovery from -0.17 in February. This marks several consecutive months of improvement in resident risk appetite, which is now just a fraction away from the 0-line (the historical mean/neutral level).

Recent data also shows that foreign institutional investors’ confidence in allocating capital to Chinese assets has entered a phase of stabilization following the volatility seen in late 2025. While the Sentiment Index for A&H Shares retreated slightly from its March peak of approximately 0.54, it continues to hold steady above the 0.50 neutral threshold, ending April near 0.51.

These data points back up our confidence in Chinese assets.

A-shares still preferred over HK. Three specific reasons: (1) the national team floor mechanism is a genuinely unusual feature with no real global analog; (2) in an elevated geopolitical risk environment, A-shares’ domestic-anchored dynamics offer more insulation from global risk-off moves; (3) the composition of A-shares — AI and tech supply chain, heavy industrials, domestic manufacturers — is a better fit for the China themes we find most compelling right now versus HK.

That said, our team has been increasing exposure to Hong Kong-listed assets.

Read more

On April 1, we officially launched Baiguan Pro, our professional-tier subscription designed for investors seeking deeper, more specific coverage of Chinese equities. Baiguan Pro delivers the Baiguan team’s monthly outlook on overall Chinese equity assets, our quarterly focus on themes and sectors, richer company-level analysis, and follow-ups on the ideas and companies previously presented in the newsletter.

If you missed our launch piece, you can read it:

As a thank-you to our existing paid subscribers, we are offering a complimentary upgrade to Baiguan Pro (offer ends on June 30, 2026). If you’d like to take us up on that, simply reply to this email — we’ll get you sorted.

Subscribe now

In Today’s Data Update

We are updating four sectors that we recently wrote about in the Baiguan newsletter, with BigOne Lab’s proprietary data as of March 2026:

• Sportswear & Footwear: We previously highlighted how the rise of the “athleisure” trend and robust discretionary spending on sports and health in China are driving organic growth.

• Luxury Goods — We previously noted that luxury goods are seeing a gradual comeback in China as sentiment improves among middle-class and affluent consumers. In particular, Laopu Gold and the broader gold jewelry sector deserve close attention.

• Pop Mart — We previously detailed why we believe the IP sector is one of the best business segments in China and discussed Pop Mart’s valuation.

At BigOne Lab, we curate data highlights, analyze them, and deliver insights trusted by 100+ top institutional and corporate clients worldwide.

🔒 The following content is available to Baiguan Pro subscribers.

1. Sportswear & Footwear | March 2026

Bottom line: March growth moderated from the elevated January–February base, but Q1 as a whole delivered meaningful sequential acceleration versus Q4 — particularly for integrated brands and running shoes.

January–February’s strong performance was shaped by a confluence of one-offs: delayed winter demand from a warm December, the Chinese New Year week pull-forward, and Winter Olympics-related brand exposure. As those tailwinds faded, March growth naturally cooled. But stepping back to Q1 as a whole, the sequential improvement over Q4 is real across the board:

FILA’s acceleration to +16% is the standout. Nike remains the outlier — Q1’s -16% shows no meaningful improvement over Q4’s -18%, consistent with continued weakness at the distributor and retail level.

Performance Apparel: Divergence Opening Up

March brought a visible slowdown for Amer Sports: +20% YoY, down from +29% in January–February, with Q1 at +27% versus Q4’s +37%. Descente (+29% in March, broadly in line with Q4’s +31%) and Lululemon (+22%, versus Q4’s +26%) are both holding pace well.

Running Shoes: The Standout Growth Story

Running shoes remain the cleanest high-conviction trend in our sportswear data. Despite a modest March moderation, Q1 figures are striking:

On Running and HOKA both accelerated in Q1 — this is not a base-effect story, it reflects genuine share gains in a Chinese running shoe market that continues to trade up.

2. Laopu Gold & Gold Jewelry | March 2026

Subscribe now

Read more

Subscribe now

Last month, we asked: Is China’s Jan–Feb strength organic, or just stimulus? Two pillars are important for answering this question: the wealth effect (real estate) and income (salary). Through the week ending April 11, both still point up.

Real estate: activity broadens after the Chinese Spring Festival

Property viewings and transaction volumes are both tracking materially above their 2025 levels following the Spring Festival. Specifically, the transaction volume of second-hand homes has surpassed the peak following the 2023 Spring Festival, when a surge was driven by pent-up demand from COVID.

The recovery of the second-hand home transaction also seems even across city tiers:

The inventory level also improved materially across all city tiers, albeit at different paces. Using total listings / weekly transaction volume * 4.33 as a proxy (where 4.33 is just the average weeks per month), the average “months of supply” now trends down for every city tier post Spring Festival.

Share

Bottom line: the real estate recovery is widening, not narrowing. Although signs of a strong rebound are not in the near future (we see the listing price still trending down slightly or holding steady), real estate’s weight on the economy is decreasing.

In the previous post, we also observed from job posting data that the real estate and related industries (the orange area) saw their share of total recruitment cut in half, dropping from 15% in 2020 to less than 8% by the end of 2025.

Salaries: healthy growth in March

Average posted salaries on Chinese online recruitment platforms bottomed in November 2024 and have accelerated almost every month since.

March 2026 printed +5.7% YoY — the strongest reading since mid-2022 — with MoM momentum also picking up.

Two caveats: the data sample can skew toward while-collar roles. Additionally, the salary growth may not be even across industries. As we’ve previously pointed out (see Old to New), higher-paying “new productivity” jobs in tech and AI-adjacent roles are crowding out lower-paying ones.

But even after adjusting for both, a full year of accelerating wage growth is a meaningful break from 2023–24.

A note to readers: We recently launched Baiguan Pro, a professional tier for investors seeking more in-depth analysis directly related to Chinese equities. There, we share our team’s monthly view on Chinese assets, built on macro data points like these, along with other proprietary data and market inputs. If the Charts of the Week help you calibrate the China investment, Baiguan Pro takes it a step further.

Interested readers can read the inaugural post here.

Related Reads

The latest entry on the list is interesting: Car factories. Xiaomi, NIO, Xpeng, BMW, and Volkswagen have all opened their production floors to public tours in China — and the demand has been extraordinary. Xiaomi’s lottery-based reservation system saw acceptance rates as low as 0.4%, with scalpers on secondhand platforms reselling spots for thousands of yuan. Parents are driving 60 kilometers in sub-zero temperatures, wishing to let their kids get a first-hand understanding of China’s latest high-tech developments. The factory floors are becoming new classrooms.

But behind the parental enthusiasm lies a sharper story. In one of the most brutally competitive auto markets in the world, Chinese car companies have discovered that opening the factory floor is among the cheapest and most effective marketing tools available. The assembly line becomes a brand experience. The company cafeteria becomes a fond memory. The child who once touched a car part might, one day, grow up to buy that brand.

This piece, originally published by 盐财经 and written by Mo Nai, takes a close look at how China’s auto brands have quietly turned middle-class parenting anxiety into a precision-targeted marketing strategy.

Subscribe now

Below is Baiguan’s translation of the article:

Middle-Class Parents Take Their Kids to Car Factories — and Auto Brands Are Cashing In

By Mo Nai | Source: 盐财经 (Yan Caijing)

The holidays are here, and China’s anxious middle-class parents are converging on a shared destination for ‘educational enrichment’: the Chinese factory.

Milk plants where kids witness pasteurization and try their hand at milking. Beer factories where cans roll past on conveyor belts and visitors sample complimentary fresh draught. Beverage and bakery plants that satisfy both the visual and the edible.

But among all factory tours, none has proven more popular than the car factory.

Gleaming, brightly lit modern workshops. Robotic arms in seamless coordination. The sweep and arc of enormous gantry cranes. Words like ‘mechanization’ and ‘automation’ have elevated the humble factory floor several tiers up the parental status ladder.

Xiaomi, NIO, Xpeng, BMW Brilliance, and Volkswagen have all opened factory tour programs, allowing regular visitors to walk through designated production areas.

Compared with the old ways of taking kids camping in the park or visiting amusement parks, the latest trend in outings is to head to a car factory for a full tech-education experience. That said, getting a free ticket for the tour isn’t exactly easy.

For instance, Xiaomi operates a randomized lottery system for its factory tours. At one point, the acceptance rate for a single session dipped to just 0.4%. On secondhand platforms, scalpers were flipping reserved spots for thousands of yuan — and still couldn’t keep up with demand.

Xie Lei lives far from the factory, but told Yan Caijing she was lucky — she got in on her very first attempt. Last October, she drove nearly 60 kilometers with her son. ‘He’s really into cars, and watching the production line blew his mind. But honestly, what he remembered most was the cars in the showroom,’ she said.

There are many parents just like Xie Lei.

More importantly, this isn’t just an urgent need for parents—it’s also a clear indication that car brands understand China’s middle-class families inside out.

Subscribe now

Parents focused on education are being targeted by scalpers

“I was amazed to see so many robotic arms working together in such an orderly way,” said Li Qinqin after visiting Xiaomi’s factory.

Her family of three won the lottery for a visit in January 2026. At the time, temperatures in Beijing were below minus ten degrees Celsius, but she told Yan Caijing that the chill was “totally worth it.”

“When I was a child, we didn’t have the chance to visit factories. Now I can learn alongside my own child,” Li Qinqin said. During the visit, her family even sampled trendy treats like yogurt-coated mahua (fried dough twists) in the cafeteria. The whole experience, she added, was “fun for the kids and beneficial for their physical and mental development from an educational perspective.”

According to publicly available information, the typical factory visit process goes like this: touring the showroom, walking through the production line, participating in test drives, and finally doing DIY car models or making souvenirs. Some companies even open their cafeterias for visitors to sample meals.

In fact, most factory tours follow a similar schedule with relatively fixed content. But with the packaging by educational institutions and intermediaries, these visits have become part of spring or weekend study programs. After the visit, students often receive certificates, “guiding them to understand innovation and craftsmanship.”

With the emphasis on mechanical and technological terminology, parental expectations are rising. Middle-class parents often say, “Our children have been interested in cars from an early age,” and taking them to a frontline production line is undoubtedly the closest path to realizing that dream. Checking into showrooms and company cafeterias has become a must-share experience on social media.

Xie Lei and Li Qinqin are part of this factory-visit trend, and their shared trait is luck—they only needed one or two attempts to win a free spot in the lottery.

On the market, most factory tours have a clear price. For example, one educational intermediary lists a visit to Guangzhou Dongfeng Nissan’s factory at 318 yuan for one adult and one child, with an additional 200 yuan for each extra child. Some companies allow owners to redeem points via an app for visit privileges, such as NIO.

The most popular factory visit is Xiaomi’s.

Since Lei Jun (Xiaomi’s CEO) announced in January last year that the car factory would open for public bookings, slots have been in high demand. Initially, Xiaomi only offered tours about ten days per month, but as popularity grew, a session limited to 20 participants attracted 4,600 applicants. Xiaomi then gradually increased the number of sessions. Data shows that last year, the Yizhuang factory (Beijing) hosted 130,000 visitors for tours and experiences.

Currently, Xiaomi’s booking page shows 27 days open for visits in March 2026. Even with more sessions, securing a slot requires booking at least a week in advance.

Visiting a car factory has become a “knowledgeable” alternative to amusement parks or historical towns, serving as premium social media content for middle-class families. The scarcity of tickets has turned them into social currency, giving rise to a scalper market.

Since the opening of public bookings, scalpers selling tickets are easy to find. Yan Caijing reporters found second-hand platforms where tickets for a specific date were priced from 100 to 1,000 yuan, with sellers insisting “no discounts.”

Not all factory visits have been universally praised.

Xie Lei told Yan Caijing that her experience had flaws. “The main issue is that factories are usually in remote locations. Although it’s educational, the actual content is limited, and travel takes up too much time. If these parent-child factory trips could combine tours with hands-on activities and nearby amusement options, that would be ideal.”

She also noted the cost: “Comprehensive factory trips are expensive, and for what you get, the value isn’t always high. Xiaomi’s tours, being free, are short and limited in activities.”

Amid expectations and fantasies, China’s middle-class parents are embarking on a “tech journey” that is, in essence, a high-value educational and social investment.

Subscribe now

Factory tours as marketing

Free lotteries, limited attendance, and deliberate scarcity—car companies have turned factory visits into a phenomenon comparable to securing Spring Festival train tickets. On the surface, it appears to be an educational and social event for families, but in reality, it’s a carefully designed marketing strategy.

Touring the factory—listening to staff, learning brand history, participating in test drives—is similar to visiting a dealership. The goal is the same: to deepen visitors’ understanding of a new brand.

Even if attending families don’t immediately become buyers, seeing cars assembled in person is far more emotionally persuasive than flashy advertising that claims “a car rolls off the line every 57 seconds.” Production lines have become premium-brand advertising at a lower customer-acquisition cost.

On social media, some users reported that a factory visit influenced their choice of next car, while some parents hoped their children would aspire to work in high-tech industries or join new-energy car companies.

The visits are often designed as parent-child trips, making modern factories both educational spaces and experiential environments that inspire dreams, consumption, and decision-making.

International car companies also use factory tours as incentives.

In 2024, Tesla ran two promotions in China: new owners could win a trip to its Fremont factory, including airfare and accommodation, or, through an official trade-in service, visit the Shanghai factory (limited to ten spots). Following the second promotion, Tesla’s December 2024 sales in China rose 12.8% year-on-year, hitting a monthly record.

Selling cars today is no longer just a service—it’s a craft. Opening factory doors aligns with evolving marketing strategies and societal trends. Visiting production lines is no longer a novelty—it’s a way to experience national industrial progress.

At the national level, factory tours have received strong support. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed creating model industrial tourism bases and routes, integrating industrial heritage and smart factories into regional tourism.

“Industrial tourism” should hold a significant place in China, given that globally it accounts for 10–15% of total tourism revenue, while in China it is less than 5%, showing room for growth.

China’s advantage lies in its comprehensive industrial system. Whereas industrial tourism used to focus on heritage sites, now visitors seek interactive experiences with industrial culture.

On the other hand, factories also create more opportunities to engage directly with consumers.

In fact, the earliest companies to offer factory tours were car manufacturers. After the 1920s, France’s Citroën became the first to invite consumers and visitors into its factories to witness the entire assembly process. At the time, Citroën adopted the assembly line model from the United States’ Ford Motor Company, streamlining production rhythm and efficiency. This novel, live “reality-show” experience greatly satisfied the French public’s curiosity.

Founder André Citroën realized that opening factories to visitors was a powerful marketing tool, turning industrial production into a public spectacle.

If consumers’ interest lies in seeing closed, mysterious workshops, what do car companies seek? They aim to create a system of engagement and communication akin to a private marketing ecosystem.

This sense of novelty encourages users to share, check in, and participate in follow-up activities, capturing the most valuable commodity: consumer attention. Whether through user communities, points redemption with new energy car brands, or group bookings and paid visits with traditional automakers, the common goal is to make consumers feel “this car is relevant to me.”

Today, for new brands and models to stand out, strong product quality alone is no longer enough. Transforming purchasing potential into “emotional value” has become a crucial step for the automotive industry to capture existing market demand.

After visiting a factory, what people remember aren’t dry technical terms, but tangible experiences: “the cafeteria where my child and I ate,” “the car part we touched,” “the assembly line we saw.” These real, sensory interactions directly influence decision-making.

Moreover, families who can send their children to a factory “study tour” are far from ordinary. These families usually have the economic means, time, and educational awareness to invest in their children’s tech education—and are even willing to pay scalpers’ premiums. Their consumption potential and brand loyalty far exceed that of average households.

By opening factories for free, car companies not only precisely target this high-value segment but also create a subtle form of “class-based loyalty.”

(Interviewees’ names have been changed at their request.)

Related Reads

Some of the best investment opportunities of the last several decades came from identifying big paradigm shifts.

The rise of the internet fundamentally changed how people find information (Google), buy stuff (Amazon and Alibaba), and interact with each other (Facebook and Tencent). The rise of mobile internet made Apple into a truly generational company. The demand for a decentralized store of value led to the creation of Bitcoin. The shift from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles and batteries turned Tesla, BYD, and CATL into the industrial behemoths that they are today. The rise of GLP-1 medications made Eli Lilly the world’s first trillion-dollar pharmaceutical company. And do not forget: the intelligence revolution underway right now has made Nvidia the first 4-trillion-dollar company in human history.

By definition, great structural changes take time to take shape. These trillion-dollar changes, affecting the lives of billions of people, do not happen in an instant. Also, by definition, truly great changes happen only rarely.

This means that if you are patient and spend enough time thinking about it, you can identify big opportunities ahead and have enough time to study it and watch it unfold. This is happy news for long-term investors.

Baiguan is a China-focused newsletter and research service. But we have a global perspective, and we are excited about major technological and industrial shifts that affect EVERYONE. After identifying one such shift, we examine which specific companies or industries in China will benefit the most from it.

When we look ahead, we see one area that’s on the cusp of a big fundamental shift again. It’s not an entirely new sector, but its true potential has yet to be realized. It’s the future when we will have fully autonomous smart driving systems.

Sizing the opportunity

Intuitively, having the world run by driverless vehicles sounds BIG. But how big?

In the US alone, roughly 3 trillion miles are driven by passenger vehicles each year. The average cost of ownership in the US is often cited at $0.7- $0.8 per mile, while current ride-hailing costs are typically $2 per mile. This translates into a total addressable market of $2-$6 trillion. (Note that we do not try to forecast the reduction in costs in a fully autonomous world, nor do we forecast the increase in rides either. This is a thought experiment with the intention to visualize the scale of opportunity, not about doing an accurate projection.)

The opportunity in China is also huge. China currently has approximately 366 million registered private passenger vehicles, and various studies indicate that these vehicles average 10,000 kilometers (roughly 6,200 miles) annually. That translates to 2.27 trillion miles driven per year, which is already comparable to the level in the US.

Our own back-of-the-envelope calculation puts the average cost of ownership in China at ~$0.45/mile, while ride-hailing costs are much lower than in the US, at ~$0.6-0.7/mile. Overall, the total addressable market for China’s robotaxi is around $1.2 trillion - $1.6 trillion.

It’s noticeable that the TAM for robotaxis in China looks smaller than in the US, reflecting lower car ownership per capita and lower labor costs. However, both of these factors have strong secular tailwinds that will help them grow faster in China, making it possible for the final market size in China to be larger than the US.

And for this exercise, we haven’t even factored in the size of the opportunity for the rest of the world, which is conceivably larger than US + China combined.

We are almost ready - technologically, economically, and culturally

All of this market-sizing exercise won’t mean a thing if the underlying tech isn’t ready. But what we observe is that the technology is no longer just on paper; it is now in daily operations and is fast approaching maturity worldwide.

In the US, Waymo is currently running at a run rate of 500,000 paid rides per week across more than 10 US cities. And estimates put Waymo’s market share in San Francisco’s operating zone, one of its earliest, already surpassing Lyft's.

When consumers actually experience a mature robotaxi service, the feedback is overwhelmingly positive. According to Waymo’s own rider surveys, an impressive 93% of their customers reported satisfaction with their rides, often citing the smooth driving style and the privacy of an empty cabin as key benefits. More tellingly, reports have surfaced of Uber users actively canceling rides when assigned a human driver if a Waymo vehicle is available as an alternative in cities where the service is integrated.

In China, the scale of deployment is equally aggressive, if not more. Baidu’s Apollo Go, one of the country’s largest operators, recently reported a peak of over 300,000 fully driverless weekly rides in Q4 2025, surpassing 20 million cumulative rides globally across 26 cities, and the company has announced it achieved per-vehicle profitability there late last year. Meanwhile, competitors like Pony.ai and WeRide have both pushed their global fleets past the 1,000-vehicle mark, with Pony.ai targeting over 3,000 robotaxis across 20 cities by the end of 2026.

A growing body of data also suggests that Chinese consumers are increasingly open to, and in some cases prefer, autonomous driving over human-driven vehicles. In China, the acceptance rate is particularly high. A 2025 McKinsey survey found that Chinese consumers show a significantly higher willingness to pay for autonomous features than their Western counterparts, with many citing safety and convenience as the primary drivers. Furthermore, a report by Rest of World highlighted that an overwhelming 85% of Chinese consumers expressed comfort with the idea of riding in a fully autonomous vehicle, a stark contrast to the persistent skepticism often seen in the US.

Our personal experiences point in the same direction. When test-riding Pony.ai’s robotaxis in Pudong, Shanghai, in preparation for a part of the upcoming Baiguan China Tour, we found the experience exceeded our expectations. The driverless vehicles are both fast and smooth in complicated situations. We left with the sense that we would prefer riding in a robotaxi to riding with human drivers. (You can also check out Amber’s experience with Baidu Apollo Go in Wuhan last year.)

Robotaxi just feels inevitable.

The main bottleneck

A May 2025 report by Goldman Sachs forecast that China’s robotaxi fleet would grow more than tenfold from approximately 4,000 vehicles in 2025 to roughly 500,000 by 2030. Looking further ahead. They also projected that the fleet could grow to 1.9 million vehicles by 2035, achieving a 25% penetration of the entire ride-hailing market.

These figures sound impressive. However, we couldn’t help but wonder, should it not be happening faster? 500,000 vehicles in 5 years sounds very conservative, given it’s a tiny fraction (~0.1%) of all passenger vehicles running on the road in China today, and the fact that technology seems almost ready now.

We believe two crucial factors are holding back the industry from realizing its full potential in China, and they are two sides of the same coin: low labor costs and labor-related political concerns.

Chinese regulations regarding robotaxis have shown two faces at once. On the one hand, local governments across the country are aggressively approving pilot zones. Baidu Apollo Go alone has entered around ~20 cities in China by the end of 2025.

Yet at the same time, all of the pilot zones are exactly what their names suggest: pilot zones, areas with light traffic and far away from population centers. In Baidu’s stronghold city of Wuhan, for example, after years of expansion, the pilot zone still covers only the area surrounding the main population center. In Shanghai, most pilot zones are located in the suburbs, which take at least 1 or 2 hours to reach from the city center.

This contrasts sharply with the US, where Waymo already covers the entire Bay Area, from San Francisco to San Jose.

We believe road-safety concerns related to China’s much more complex road environment can only partially explain the gap here.

When we look at the robotaxi in China, we cannot ignore the huge elephant in the room: China currently has an unemployment issue. There is currently an oversupply of low-skill labor. This affects the robotaxi market from two vectors.

First of all, at ~$0.7/mile, China’s ride-hailing cost is low, making robotaxi services a less compelling economic choice than they are in the US. On the other hand, the Chinese government sees social stability as a top policy priority, so allowing driverless services to grow unchecked will add further fuel to the more pressing fire. In the meantime, Beijing does not want to fall behind the US in this strategic sector. Therefore, it is juggling between policy priorities here by allowing more and more “pilots” in a low-key manner, without pulling the real trigger.

This labor and policy bottleneck is what we think would hold China back from realizing the full potential of robotaxi in the next few years. Within the next 5 years, we do not expect explosive growth in this sector. But as China’s population is on a guaranteed path of aging, we could see a drastic switch towards autonomous and an explosive inflection point, possibly in the 5-10 year timeframe.

We thus remind you that you should not expect this research piece to yield a near-term result, but rather to prepare you psychologically for one of the biggest long-term trends.

Four main areas to watch

With the context set, evaluating how to capitalize on this trend requires analyzing four distinct investment directions:

• L4 companies (Pony.ai, Baidu, etc.)

• OEMs (Xpeng, Nio, etc.)

• ride-hailing platforms (Didi, Gaode, etc.)

• picks-and-shovels component providers (Hesai, Horizon Robotics, etc)

We do not like all of them. In fact, many of them may become value traps despite the immense opportunity in this sector. In the section below reserved for Baiguan Pro subscribers, we will dive deeper.

[Once again, for existing Baiguan paid subscribers: We are offering you a free upgrade, giving you full access to all Baiguan Pro content. To upgrade, please REPLY to this email with the email address associated with your paid subscription, or send an email to baiguan@bigonelab.com. We are processing these upgrades manually through the end of the second quarter (June 30).

Please note that if you opt-in to the Baiguan Pro tier, your subscription will renew at the new rate if auto-renewal is enabled.]

Read more

Many Chinese netizens do jokingly refer to this company as ‘Pop Mart for middle-aged men’ due to its focus on figurines and collectibles, but its business model couldn’t be more different. That said, I promise an interesting look into how Chinese consumers are rediscovering their passion for traditional craftsmanship in today’s post.

There’s a joke that’s been circulating in China for years about the spending hierarchy of Chinese consumers. The rough order goes: women > children > the elderly > pets > men. Specifically, middle-aged men.

The stereotype is fair. Chinese middle-aged men — the ones running companies, managing client relationships, attending business banquets, and bearing the burden of financing the family — tend not to spend on themselves. But their money goes to status, to relationships, to gifts.

So when a company specifically targeting this demographic just went public in Hong Kong, it was worth paying attention to — even if almost nobody did.

Subscribe now

Tong Shi Fu: the copper artisanal products

铜师傅 (Tong Shi Fu, or “Copper Craftmaster” if translated literally, 0664.HK) listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on March 31. The IPO didn’t go well on debut — shares opened down 41% from the offering price of HK$60 and closed down nearly 49%. Not the kind of first day that generates headlines for the right reasons.

But the business itself is interesting. Founded in 2013 in Hangzhou, Tong Shi Fu is China’s largest copper cultural and creative products company. It makes copper figurines, desk ornaments, and decorative pieces — the kind of objects you’d find on the desk of a Chinese business owner, displayed in a meeting room, or held in the palm of a hand as a fidget toy. Revenue hit around 570 million yuan in 2024, with gross margins of 35%.

Both Shunwei Capital and Xiaomi (through its subsidiary Tianjin Jinmi) are shareholders, together holding over 22% of the company. Interestingly, Xiaomi’s CEO Lei Jun personally backed Tong Shi Fu as far back as 2017 with a 110 million yuan Series A, followed by a 310 million yuan Series B in 2018. He called it “the enterprise most like Xiaomi outside the entire Xiaomi ecosystem” — which, if you know how Lei Jun thinks about brand-building and product positioning, is a genuine compliment.

In a way, the comparison makes sense. Like Xiaomi in its early days consolidated many white-label brands, Tong Shi Fu took a traditional category dominated by anonymous workshops, applied design thinking, built a recognizable brand, and used e-commerce to reach a national audience (In 2024, online sales accounted for 76.7% of its revenue!)

The Commercialization of Craft

The rise of Tong Shi Fu doesn’t make sense without the broader backdrop.

Over the past few years, the revival of Chinese traditional culture and craftsmanship has been one of the most consistent undercurrents in China’s consumer market — and it’s getting more commercial. We’ve been covering different facets of this story since 2023.

Take Laopu Gold**,** for example. I’ve previously discussed how their success stems from a return to “ancient gold” techniques, tapping into gold’s deep-rooted status as a cultural symbol in China. But there is an ongoing debate: Is Laopu’s hype driven by genuine craftsmanship or simply by gold’s value-retaining properties amidst skyrocketing prices?

Laopu’s commercial success was indeed significantly supported by gold’s dramatic price appreciation in recent years. But Tong Shi Fu probably represents the other side of the coin. Copper artifacts also possess a significant cultural legacy and a devoted (albeit niche) collector base. Unlike gold, the appeal here isn’t financial hedging; it’s pure appreciation of the craft.

Bridging old and new

The brand is not just selling traditional copper crafts; it is actively trying to make them speak to contemporary culture.

Some of this happens through homophonic puns. For instance, they offer a collectible shaped like a crab claw (qián 钳) to signal wealth, as the word for “claw” sounds like the word for “money” (qián 钱) in Chinese. Another piece is shaped like a bun (bāo 包) and is titled “Guaranteed Success,” since bao also means “guarantee” in Chinese. These puns land immediately with the target consumer.

The company has also aggressively pursued IP licensing—the high-growth business model followed by companies like Pop Mart and Miniso. They have released figurines featuring characters from the blockbuster animated film Ne Zha 2, Dunhuang cultural motifs, and even Captain America. Although these IP-driven products are not yet the core revenue drivers, they signal a deliberate push to reach younger consumers and expand the brand's cultural range beyond traditional gifting.

In this sense, copper artisan products are undergoing a journey very similar to Laopu Gold’s: taking something that once felt old-fashioned or niche and finding a way to make it resonate with modern aesthetics. (For a long time before Laopu Gold went viral, it was common for young Chinese consumers to view gold jewelry as unfashionable—something only an “elderly auntie” would wear).

Gift giving—The “necessity” for the middle-aged man

Interestingly, copper products have captured an essential demand among middle-aged men: the need for gifting.

For instance, nearly all of Tong Shi Fu’s top-selling SKUs are variations of the Ma Dao Cheng Gong (meaning “success upon arrival” in Chinese) or Ma Shang You Qian (money upon arrival) desktop copper horse. It is widely considered a foolproof choice for anyone looking to impress a client or business partner—particularly those who are middle-aged.

Share

For many Chinese men in that demographic, this aesthetic is practically universal: it is grand and perhaps a bit cheesy, yet it successfully signals wealth and social status through puns and auspicious animal symbols. (Horses, deer, and gourds all remain staple choices in Chinese gifting culture.)

At the higher end of the spectrum sits Zhu Bingren Copper (朱炳仁·铜). Also based in Hangzhou, it is a more premium brand targeting a similar demographic and gifting scenario, but with more elevated positioning.

Zhu Bingren is one of China’s most celebrated copper artisans—a “National Intangible Cultural Heritage” inheritor whose work has been presented as state gifts to foreign dignitaries. Compared to Tong Shi Fu, which targets the mass market, Zhu Bingren tends to create more traditionally inspired symbols and totemic pieces. These can feel less “trendy” and more “old-fashioned,” but they are undeniably grander and, naturally, command a much higher price point.

The brand now operates over 230 stores across mainland China and recently opened its first overseas location in Singapore. Reportedly, the company is also in the process of pursuing an IPO on the Beijing Stock Exchange.

While these two copper artisan brands target different customer segments, they are riding the same underlying current: the professionalization of Chinese heritage.

Branding: the opportunity for Chinese artisan products

Despite the abundance of traditional craftsmanship in China, the level of brand development in this space has historically been very poor. Most great craftsmanship is sold anonymously — from family workshops, or by artisans working in obscure side streets with no storytelling, no national distribution, no scalable identity. Or, at the other side of the spectrum, pieces by masters only circulated within the niche groups without transparent market pricing.

That’s changing.

I believe this shift represents a massive opportunity for both Chinese companies. While I don’t necessarily think a brand like Tong Shi Fu represents a massive TAM on its own, the rise of brands like Laopu Gold and Tong Shi Fu proves that China is successfully commercializing its cultural heritage with more mature brand building and storytelling.

We are also seeing the emergence of ways to “capitalize” on traditional products in the secondary market. While I’m not always certain this is a positive from a purely artistic perspective, from a market standpoint, it means these crafts are gradually becoming truly investable assets.

China possesses hundreds of thousands of distinct forms of craftsmanship. Beyond the few public companies, smaller brands are rising everywhere. Many of these are led by solo founders or young artisans using Xiaohongshu (Red Note) as their primary launchpad. Compared to older-generation artisans, today’s generation has much stronger digital literacy and business sense.

Even among these smaller workshops that haven’t yet caught the eye of big capital, the commercialization is already well underway.

For instance, I’ve been following an artisan named “Xiao Kuan Zhu Gong” (小宽竹工) for several years (whose workshop is also based in Fuyang, Hangzhou! I must say, the atmosphere in Hangzhou—and Zhejiang Province as a whole—has indeed nurtured successful entrepreneurs across every industry).

He is a handicapped artisan who creates beautiful zhubian (bamboo weaving) crafts. He started with no reputation, running his own Xiaohongshu store, but he has always possessed a rare combination of pure craftsmanship and sharp business sense. For instance, he didn’t just sell finished pieces; he launched DIY kits and did an excellent job of branding his personal story and “behind-the-scenes” process to enhance his brand’s value.

He is a prime example of the many, many artisans currently stepping into the spotlight.

Recently, Pop Mart launched a collaboration with him, proving that even for brands that do not specialize in traditional crafts, embracing cultural heritage is no longer optional—it is a strategic necessity.

China has hundreds of thousands of distinct crafts waiting for their "Laopu moment." — the "Cultural China" trade is just getting started!

Related Reads

As early as August 2024, right before POP MART’s shares really took off, we first commented on its stellar growth based on our own data.

In June 2025, took a deep dive into the consumer psychology around this company, including her own personal conversion as a consumer.

The stock price of POP MART recently had a major setback. After its annual earnings announcement, the stock has tanked by more than 30% over five sessions, wiping out around HK$100 billion in market value.

Three main reasons explained this market’s sudden lack of confidence. First, the market is concerned that the overseas business performed worse than expected. Second, there are concerns that POP MART relies too much on a single IP, namely Labubu (The Monsters). Third, Wang Ning, the founder and CEO, gave an ultra-conservative guidance of “no less than 20% growth” during the earnings release.

In the first half of 2025, overseas revenue skyrocketed 440% year over year. However, in the second half of the year, the overseas revenue growth rate “slowed down” to 243% year over year.

240%+ growth is certainly slower than 440%+ growth, but we can’t help but feel that calling this a “deceleration” runs the risk of nitpicking.

POP MART’s phenomenally explosive global growth story was a huge surprise for everyone in 2025. The market was naive to build a linear extrapolation of future growth rates from this level in the first place, and it is only natural to expect that, after such triple-digit hyper-growth, the company is bound to see some deceleration.

On the other hand, it’s important to note that China's sales have been remarkably robust and resilient. In the first half of 2025, Greater China revenue grew 135% year over year. In the second half, the growth rate remained virtually unchanged at 134% year-over-year. This demonstrates that China remains the main growth engine for POP MART, with strong and stable growth momentum that has not lost steam.

Our own proprietary data, tracking in-store transactions in China, also shows the growth rate in Q1 will be substantially higher than “no less than 20%”. (You can find the exact data behind the paywall.)

As for over-reliance on IP. It’s true that Labubu now accounts for 38.1% of total revenue, in 2025, up from 23.3% in 2024. However, the growth picture is more nuanced than it first appears. Labubu grew by 365.7% year-over-year, which is indeed the fastest growth rate among POP MART’s established IPs. Yet the company’s portfolio is diversifying rapidly. DIMOO grew at 205.3%, SKULLPANDA at 170.6%, and CRYBABY at 151.4%. More significantly, Twinkle Twinkle, positioned as the next major IP, grew at an extraordinary 1,601.6% year-over-year, from just 120.8 million yuan in 2024 to 2.06 billion yuan in 2025, now capturing 5.5% of total revenue.

If Labubu had not existed, you would still consider this company a high-growth one, if only with these IPs. An investor simply should not blame something for growing even faster than its fast peers.

We believe the real trigger for the big share price slump is the highly conservative “guidance” that Wang gave to the market.

Overall, POP MART grew 185% in 2025, reaching 37 billion yuan in total revenue. But now the management slapped a mere “20%” on the market’s face. A violent re-rating is only natural afterward.

According to Wang Ning’s explanation. It was a voluntary decision to decelerate and regroup internally after a “F-1-style” helluva ride. But the market is usually skeptical of such a statement. Is it a genuine choice to decelerate and regroup, or a just cover-up for a company that’s losing steam?

Regardless of the reason, it is certain that the company won’t pursue rapid growth in the near future. In a hot stock that has been dominated by long-short hedge funds, this is enough to scare many investors away.

At the same time, we start to see signs of super-long money coming into the scene. Duan Yongping, often dubbed as “Buffet of China” and a mentor of PDD’s Colin Huang, very publicly retracted his previous comment that he would not invest in POP MART, and praised POP MART as “right business, right people, and right price” and a “real precursor of the internalization of Chinese brands”.

It seems a rotation of investor types is underway right now.

Is POP MART valued correctly?

POP MART inspires many analogies. Back when it was a hot name, analysts often imagined POP MART would become the future Disney of China. While a closer analogy might be Japan’s Sanrio (8136.JP), creator of the Hello Kitty franchise.

We don’t believe POP MART is Disney or Sanrio, yet.

The crucial difference is that POP MART is still too young. By simple definition, when someone is young, they can’t prove that they are evergreen.

If you're looking for an analogy to understand POP MART, we think it's more like a video game company right now.

The situation is similar to Tencent Games back in 2017, when one super franchise, Honor of Kings, accounted for ~50% of its mobile game revenue. At the time, investors were also concerned about the sustainability of the situation.

Just like Tencent Games in 2017, POP MART has not yet demonstrated the longevity of the super franchise. On the other hand, the success and runway of each franchise are far from predictable. Even their own management cannot predict them. They also don’t have a long enough track record to prove that they can keep producing hit after hit.

Adding to the problem is that, so far, POP MART’s IPs lack narrative power. This is a key difference between POP Mart and Disney at this moment. Disney’s IPs have narratives and stories, while Labubus are storyless, making it even harder for investors to look ahead.

All of these mean that the current valuation of POP MART, at a low double-digit TTM P/E and even single-digit forward PE, is exactly where it should be.

Investors love linear extrapolation. Investors hate it when there is too much uncertainty, and they can’t perform linear extrapolation due to low visibility. POP MART is thus rapidly, violently gearing down from a high-growth, high-multiple story to a stable-growth, low-multiple value play that many institutional investors would not want to participate in.

Looking ahead over the next few years, we should focus only on whether the share price can be driven by actual EPS growth, and assume that re-rating will occur only after years, and even decades, of solid, healthy growth.

Even if you are a POP MART bull, this is the reality you have to be clear about.

So, should we expect POP MART to sustain long-term growth?

We think we should.

In fact, we believe if there is any company that is able to deliver a long-lasting enterprise value capitalizing on China’s (and the world’s) growing demand for high-emotional-value consumption, it’s got to be POP MART.

There are at least three reasons to support our conviction: people, platform, and attitude towards investors.

First, let’s look at it from a first-principle perspective: for a business as ephemeral and as unpredictable as that of POP MART, what’s the single most important factor to consider? Technology? Marketing capability? Cash?

None of that.

The single most important factor is people and culture.

This is not the first time that POP MART has faced a crisis. In fact, the “crisis” of today is far less significant than previous ones.

When POP MART IPOed in 2020, investors questioned whether the company relied too much on its main IP, Molly. There was the same debate over whether the business model worked and if the company could keep delivering long-standing IPs. Following that, the share price fell by more than 80% from its IPO price by 2023, before rising 30-fold over the next two years.

And even further back, POP MART had been building this unique and lesser-known business for more than a decade before its IPO. There weren’t many overseas models to copy. Many people do not understand the model. It’s not a red-hot sector with an existing roadmap to show them the way. They have always been lonely.

It’s also when Wang Ning developed the core tenet in his management culture: “Respect time, respect operations” (尊重时间, 尊重经营), which sounds very much like benfen of Duan Yongping and Pinduoduo.

Over the last 16 years, the company has proven it can survive cycles, find its own audience, and keep innovating on its own timeline and pace. They seem able to consistently make the right choices and are unafraid of being alone or singled out, which is a remarkable characteristic in Chinese business culture and society.

This is why we believe this current voluntary deceleration of growth in exchange for operational improvement is real, and not a cover-up for slow growth. It’s yet another sign that this company does not care about short-term performance but is squarely focused on the long term.

It’s also important to understand that “no less than 20%” is not “guidance” in traditional Wall Street speak. The “20%” number is the least Wang Ning thinks they can deliver with 100% certainty. Anything above is not planned for and will not be the focus of this year. It’s the equivalent of saying there is no quantifiable business target for this year at all.

It’s healthy that they are sober about where they are, despite the immense market expectations. This is the right way to do it, especially in a business that nurtures and manages intangible assets. Focusing too much on short-term financial metrics would only kill its soul.

The second reason for our confidence is that we should not forget that POP MART has already achieved incredible success, leaving it with a formidable moat that won’t be easily surpassed by copycats in the short term.

The most formidable asset is its brand. POP MART now has significant branding power, not just at the individual IP level but also at the company level, both in China and, very uniquely, worldwide.

This immense brand equity gives them a significant edge over copycats and competitors in their dealings with all stakeholders, not just consumers. For example, they have moved into prime real estate locations across China and in many parts of the world, ensuring that each of its new product lines and IPs will be the first for their consumers to encounter. They have also built a great reputation with designers and a strong connection with their core community, which gives them a real edge in continuing to produce new product lines.

Last but not least, despite POP MART’s long-term mindset, they also care about shareholder interests.

This is unlike PDD, which is also a very long-term-focused company but has never shown a commitment to boosting shareholder returns, the main factor driving PDD’s extremely low valuation now. Most people do not doubt that Pinduoduo is a superbly run company. But investors are concerned that if a company never cares about minority shareholders' interests, the very foundation of any financial modeling based on distributable discounted cash flows will be pointless.

POP MART is different: it has also proven itself to be an investor-friendly company. Whenever the share price dropped dramatically, it bought back shares aggressively. In the several trading sessions since its share price tanked, the company has already repurchased close to 1% of its total capital. An aggressive share buyback will also be part of POP MART’s path toward stronger EPS growth, alongside sheer profit growth.

The latest data

Behind the paywall, you will see the latest data from BigOne Lab, our parent company, about POP MART’s latest performance in China.

The data below are currently accessible to all paid subscribers. But in the next few months or quarters, we will provide regular updates of this data (and similar data) for Baiguan Pro subscribers. One of the many key differences between a paid subscription and a Pro subscription is that Pro subscribers will receive much more ongoing data updates.

Once again, for existing Baiguan paid subscribers: We are offering an upgrade to the Professional tier, giving you full access to all Baiguan Pro content. To upgrade, please REPLY to this email with the email address associated with your paid subscription. We are processing these upgrades manually through the end of the second quarter (June 30). (Please note that if you opt-in to the Baiguan Pro tier, your subscription will renew at the new rate if auto-renewal is enabled.)

Read more

We have something new to share.

We’re launching Baiguan Pro this April.

Here’s why, and what’s inside the first issue.

Why we built this

Have you ever read a Baiguan piece introducing a phenomenal company — be it Pop Mart, Laopu Gold, others, and thought — Okay, I hope I can know how this company performs from now on. Or, have you ever read a piece about China’s service sector, experiential spending, or robotaxi industry, and wondered, but what is the Baiguan team actually doing with this?

We get these questions a lot.

Over three years of writing the newsletter, we’ve noticed our readers split into two groups. One group loves the broader China observations — the cultural context, the business stories, the macro backdrop. But there’s another group that keeps asking a more specific question: I’m bullish on China after reading you. Now what do I actually do? (There are overlaps, of course.)

Baiguan Pro is for the second group.

Here’s what we’ve realized: we’ve flagged a lot of companies, sectors, and themes in the newsletter, and readers have told us they want the follow-through. Not just the observation, but the investment thinking behind it.

We also sit on a lot of data. Baiguan has some of the best ground-level macro, consumer, and sentiment data on China out there. But data alone doesn’t tell you what to do. In Baiguan Pro, we’ll pair our data with a more structured, directional view — what we’re watching, and why.

One more thing that shapes how we think: everyone on the Baiguan team manages their own global, multi-asset portfolios. We’re not single-country analysts. That means when we look at China, we’re always looking at it in context — what else is on the table, what the opportunity cost is, how an international allocator actually thinks about an allocation decision. That global frame is built into how we write Baiguan Pro.

Subscribe now

What to expect

Baiguan Pro has a consistent content structure, so you always know what’s coming:

Monthly View on Chinese Assets — Each month, we pull together macro data, BigOne Lab (Baiguan’s parent company)’s proprietary data and indices, and the relevant policy backdrop to give you a structured read on where Chinese assets stand. The goal is to cut through noise and give you a directional view, backed by data.

Quarterly Theme Focus List — Every quarter, we identify the sectors, themes, and idiosyncratic opportunities we think are worth paying attention to for the next three months. This isn’t a buy list — we flag both opportunities and risks, both longs and shorts. We flag what’s interesting and why, and we’re equally willing to tell you when something looks stretched or when the consensus narrative seems wrong.

Follow-Up & Deep Dives — For themes on our quarterly list, we follow through: deep dives into industries or companies, BigOne Lab’s own data on specific trends, and the occasional company or story that’s just too “meme” to ignore.

Baiguan Data Highlights — Data insights feeds from BigOne Lab’s industry analyst team, shared with our institutional clients.

Occasional Commentary — When something happens in the market that actually matters, we’ll write about it. Brief, direct, no fluff.

Baiguan Pro is available as an upgrade via Baiguan Professional Tier (Founding Member).

For existing Baiguan free subscribers: nothing changes with your current subscription. We’ll continue covering China broadly in the newsletter — context, culture, business, macro — and we plan to expand that coverage further over time.

For existing Baiguan paid subscribers: We are offering an upgrade to the Professional tier, giving you full access to all Baiguan Pro content. To upgrade, please REPLY to this email with the email address associated with your paid subscription. We are processing these upgrades manually through the end of the second quarter (June 30). (Please note that if you opt-in to the Baiguan Pro tier, your subscription will renew at the new rate if auto-renewal is enabled.)

This Month: Our View on Chinese Assets

First, we believe China is meaningfully underweight in ACWI relative to its economic footprint, and we think that gap has overshot. The discount is understandable historically, but the risk/reward of adding from here is better than consensus implies.

We prefer A-shares over HK, currently — Three specific reasons: (1) the national team floor mechanism is a genuinely unusual feature with no real global analog; (2) in an elevated geopolitical risk environment (Iran conflict backdrop), A-shares’ domestic-anchored dynamics make them more uncorrelated with global risk-off moves; (3) the composition of A-shares — AI/tech supply chain, heavy industrials, domestic manufacturers etc. — is a better fit for the China themes we find most interesting right now versus the HK.

Our team’s directional view on China equity allocation is currently overweight relative to the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) index.

A few specifics driving that view:

Chinese equities (and broader markets) have had a choppy start to 2026. After a meaningful recovery in late 2024 and into 2025, driven by policy support and a wave of improving sentiment, the market is now in a more discerning phase — one where fundamentals are doing more of the work. Last year’s recovery captured much of the easy re-rating.

Fundamentals — we are seeing an improving trajectory. Our proprietary China Resident Risk Appetite Index (CRRAI) showed improvement in January and February.

* CRRAI quantifies Chinese household financial confidence and risk-taking appetite, and consists of the following components.

• Macro & Business Confidence (15%): Tracks liquidity and growth using M1-M2 spreads, government bond yields, and PMI data.

• Household Leverage & Credit (35%): Measures willingness to borrow, mortgage/consumer loan growth, and deposit trends.

• Real Economy Foundations (35%): Monitors asset values and income security through second-hand housing prices, transaction volume, and employment.

• Capital Market Sentiment (15%): Captures “animal spirits” via financing ratios, valuations (P/E), trading intensity, and new account openings.

All indicators Z-score standardized against the 2014–2026 history.

Valuation — not expensive, not a screaming buy. China is not uniformly cheap anymore after the recovery since 2025, but it still offers reasonable value.

Subscribe now

Sentiment

1. Retail Sentiment Index

Data is sourced from China’s major retail stock communities, with high-frequency, full-spectrum tracking of individual investors’ sentiment toward specific Chinese assets and the broader market. The sentiment index is constructed by fitting post-level semantic analysis, discussion volume, posting frequency, and directional (bullish/bearish) tone.

Historical analysis shows that every time the index reaches a standard-deviation extreme, the market has subsequently experienced a mean-reverting correction—either cooling from excessive optimism or warming from excessive pessimism.

Since the onset of the US-Iran conflict through early March, A-shares have demonstrated notable resilience relative to other emerging markets. Retail sentiment indicators are now flashing clear signs of a rebound. Drilling into the sub-components, investor enthusiasm for hard technology, upstream resources, and cyclical sectors has risen sharply during the period. At the same time, previously underperforming segments have shown no further deterioration; the positive and negative forces have largely offset each other, resulting in an overall improvement in market sentiment.

2. Retail Sensitivity to Sino-US Relations

Since the second U.S.-China tariff conflict of 2025, A-shares have traded steadily with limited volatility. On the sentiment side, retail investors’ sensitivity has been markedly lower than during the April tariff clash. Despite extensive media coverage, individual investors’ attention in the stock market has not escalated into extremes. More recently, the expected Xi-Trump summit has triggered a modest sentiment rebound, though the magnitude remains notably restrained.

3. Institutional Sentiment Index

Data is sourced from research reports from a selection of top global investment banks. The tracking monitors their analyses of capital flows into Chinese assets, macro policy outlooks, sector-level developments, and individual stock perspectives, while identifying shifts in cross-border asset allocation toward China, directional sentiment (bullish/bearish), and overall market confidence levels.

Recent data shows that foreign institutional investors’ confidence in allocating capital to Chinese assets has risen sharply. Sector and stock-specific outlooks are gradually improving, and views on China’s macroeconomic stability remain solidly positive.

Wildcards: The escalation of the Iran conflict has rattled Asian markets, but not all of Asia is equally exposed. China actually sits in a more defensive position, holding large strategic and commercial oil reserves that help cushion short-term disruptions. It has also spent years diversifying its supply toward Russia and Central Asia.

In contrast, Japan relies on the Middle East for roughly 90% of its crude oil imports. South Korea sources about 70% of its crude from the region and routes over 95% of that through the Strait of Hormuz.

We think A-shares carry a structural cushion that most markets lack: the “national team” actively intervenes when needed, reducing correlation to external shocks in ways that are hard to replicate elsewhere in the region.

Despite its cushions, a sustained surge in oil prices will inevitably weigh on China’s economic fundamentals and industrial margins. Global hyper-inflation will erode household spending power worldwide. Even if China remains stable domestically, its export engine will stall as demand from its primary global customers collapses.

Therefore, while China currently appears more resilient than its neighbors, a significant escalation—specifically the introduction of ground troops or the transition into a protracted war—would fundamentally sour our short-term outlook on the Chinese market.

Q2 Themes We’re Watching

These are the areas we plan to cover in depth over the course of Q2.

Shareholder return & dividends

Chinese companies — particularly SOEs and large-caps — have meaningfully accelerated buybacks and dividends over the past 18 months. This is a structural shift, not a one-off. In an environment where earnings growth can be uncertain, capital returns provide a floor. To be frank, Chinese equities are less about high-flying growth or “moonshot” stories like U.S. tech. Much of the investment value — and a large portion of the economy — is concentrated in dividend-paying large-cap companies. In the current rate environment, yield becomes even more relevant.

However, many popular dividend indices are heavily tilted toward banks and energy companies, which carry increasing risks after the rally.

We’re building a more balanced, focused list of names where the yield is real, the balance sheet supports continuation, and the stock isn’t already priced for it.

Robotaxi

Subscribe now

Read more

That playbook is increasingly running into a wall — specifically, with the segment of consumers that aspirant and luxury brands most want to reach.

China’s educated, high-income urban professional women — especially the 30-to-45-year-old Tier-1 city lawyer, managers, finance director, or entrepreneur — have developed a distinct allergy to the content machine. They haven’t gone offline. They've migrated. And the destination, for a meaningful slice of them, is podcasts.

The fatigue is real

The short-video economy was built on novelty, stimulation, and manufactured aspiration. For a period, it worked extremely well at converting attention to commerce. But novelty has a half-life. By the mid 2020, a growing cohort of Chinese women in their 30s and above — precisely the demographic with real spending power — started describing their experience of Douyin and Xiaohongshu in terms that sounded less like entertainment and more like a utility bill: something they check out of habit, not pleasure.

The platforms haven’t stopped working. But for the most sophisticated consumer segment, they have stopped meaning anything. When everyone is on Xiaohongshu selling a curated version of their life, the feed collapses into a single undifferentiated aesthetic. Buying a bag because you saw it in a 15-second video stops feeling like a considered choice and starts feeling like being manipulated.

This is the demand signal that a handful of Chinese premium brands — earlier and more clearly than international luxury houses — picked up on and acted on.

Subscribe now

Giada: What the urban elite Chinese woman’s role models look like

GIADA is an Italian-founded womenswear brand now owned by the Chinese luxury group Redstone Haute Couture, with price points in the tens of thousands of RMB per garment.

In 2022, rather than doubling down on KOL seeding or live commerce, the brand launched a podcast called Yan Zhong Hua Shu (岩中花述, phonetically similar to “Flower on the Rock” in Chinese) on Xiaoyuzhou FM — China’s premier indie podcast app — with legendary television host Chen Lu Yu as permanent host.

The format is deliberately unhurried. Each episode runs roughly 80 minutes. Lu Yu and a guest — drawn from literature, film, art, theater, and academia — discuss life philosophy, personal history, and what it means to be a woman in contemporary China. Product placement is effectively nonexistent. GIADA is the backdrop, not the subject.

After six seasons and nearly three years on the platform, Yan Zhong Hua Shu has accumulated over 1.07 million subscribers on Xiaoyuzhou — making it the largest branded podcast in the Chinese-speaking world, according to industry tracker JustPod. A single 2024 episode featuring Zhan Qingyun, a law graduate of the Chinese University of Hong Kong and Harvard University and a highly accomplished debater and legal professional, has so far drawn over 2,000,000 plays on Xiaoyuzhou alone.

To understand why this matters commercially: GIADA bypassed conventional celebrity endorsement, live commerce, and algorithmic Xiaohongshu/Douyin seeding. Instead, it built a sustained, high-trust relationship with exactly the demographic it wanted — women who don’t just want to buy a coat, but want to buy into what the brand represents.

Songmont: a different execution, same logic

Songmont — the domestic leather goods brand that went from fifth to first on Tmall’s Singles’ Day bags and accessories chart between 2022 and 2024 — also runs a podcast called Shan Xia Sheng (山下声, “Sound Under the Mountain”) on Xiaoyuzhou FM, with over 142,000 subscribers.

The format is more interview-driven: journalist Zhou Yijun talks with guests such as Li Na (Chinese tennis player), filmmaker Jia Zhangke, and Taiwanese actress Wen Qi. The conversations orbit themes of creativity, strength, and womanhood — not bags.

The podcast is part of a broader content strategy that has made Songmont unusually legible to its target consumer: urban women aged 25–45 with a strong sense of freedom, independence, and ambition who want to be themselves, not defined by societal norms. The podcast is doing something that Douyin ads cannot: building emotional equity.

We covered how Songmont rose from a purely online brand to a formidable player last year:

The Chinese podcast ecosystem they’re betting on

To understand why podcasts have become a viable brand-building vehicle in China, it helps to understand what China’s podcast market actually is — because it looks quite different from the Western model.

Subscribe now

Read more

Subscribe now

China’s Jan & Feb prints were improving across the board

Inflation: In January–February 2026, China’s CPI rose 0.8% year-on-year, and Core CPI hit 1.3% — the strongest reading since January 2023. PPI also showed encouraging signs at the factory gate, with industrial producer prices rising for five consecutive months on a month-on-month basis.

Spring Festival spending held up well, with services standing out. We covered this in detail in a previous post.

The key question: Is this organic or policy-driven?

This is where the honest read gets more nuanced. Much of the consumption uplift to date has been policy-assisted — trade-in subsidies, vouchers, and a record-long nine-day holiday that pulled spending forward.

The 2026 Government Work Report set a GDP target of “4.5% - 5%”—realistic but unexciting. The report prioritizes technology and new productive forces. The report prioritizes technology and new productive forces. Among its measures, China plans to issue RMB 250 billion in ultra-long-term special government bonds to support trade-in subsidies for consumer goods and to establish RMB 100 billion in fiscal-financial coordinated funds to boost domestic demand. To put that in perspective, these measures amount to less than 0.2% of GDP — hardly a massive fiscal stimulus. There is also no large-scale direct transfer to households on the table.

The elephant in the room: Is the strong Jan & Feb spending organic, and will it continue?

To put this into perspective, in today’s Charts of the Week, we return to two key pillars of domestic consumption: the wealth effect (real estate) and income expectations (salary).

Our January–February proprietary data on both fronts points in a positive direction.

Real estate: Our tracking of China’s online real estate platforms shows the second-hand housing market stabilizing under policy support, with transaction volumes in 90+ cities up 15% YoY. Viewing activity also picked up, with week-on-week viewings across 80+ sample cities rising 15%, reflecting strong buyer interest and a recovering market.

Salary: Average salaries growth across online recruitment platforms are gradually recovering, rising from near-zero in 2024 to around 4–5% in early 2026. This steady wage growth supports household purchasing power, suggesting consumption could continue at a measured pace.

Importantly, the worst of the real estate bubble’s impact on the workforce appears to be behind us, as we covered earlier:

Additionally, in select discretionary categories, we are already seeing what looks like organic spending growth that isn’t purely subsidy-driven. That is the signal worth watching. For example, we wrote about the Sports & Health sector yesterday and will follow up with more examples in future posts.

One additional tailwind: China sits in a different risk bucket than the rest of Asia

The escalation of the Iran conflict has rattled Asian markets, but not all of Asia is equally exposed. China actually sits in a more defensive position, holding large strategic and commercial oil reserves that help cushion short-term disruptions. It has also spent years diversifying its supply toward Russia and Central Asia.

In contrast, Japan relies on the Middle East for roughly 90% of its crude oil imports. South Korea sources about 70% of its crude from the region and routes over 95% of that through the Strait of Hormuz.

Market reactions reflect this. Compared to other Asian markets, China has seen a comparatively modest decline since the conflict began.

A-shares also carry a structural cushion that most markets lack: the “national team” actively intervenes when needed, reducing correlation to external shocks in ways that are hard to replicate elsewhere in the region.

Therefore, I am more constructive on Chinese markets, especially the on-shore market at this particular time.

We will continue tracking real estate and job market data — crucial macro datapoints for our paid subscribers in future posts.

Share

This is an important shift in the fashion statement.

The year 2026 has so far seen a strong rebound in China’s sports and health consumption.

According to Bigone Lab‘s online sales data (across Tmall, JD, Douyin, etc.), the sports and health industry maintained +22% growth in January-February, accelerating from +18% in December and +12% in Q4.

What makes this remarkable is that this growth is entirely organic—no government subsidies, unlike appliances or electronics. Outdoor apparel and footwear have been particularly strong, with outdoor footwear growing 65% and outdoor apparel 47%. Sportswear, in general, showed significant acceleration at +31%, compared to just +5% in Q4.

But it’s not just about sports. A broader “healthy lifestyle” wave is sweeping through Chinese middle-class consumers.

For instance, as I covered previously, the low-sugar trend has become an up-and-coming lifestyle statement that’s trending among urban Chinese.

Apart from no-sugar or low-sugar beverages, over the past three months we’ve seen several interesting, niche yet emerging categories rapidly growing across e-commerce platforms, such as grape seed extracts, taurine food, and weight-loss staples—novelty items marketed to boost metabolism or support overall health.

Chinese consumers are becoming increasingly conscious about what they put into their bodies. Sugar-free beverages, metabolic supplements, and functional foods are no longer niche categories, but lifestyle choices.

Subscribe now

“Athleisure”: the new trending lifestyle

But there’s an even more significant trend beneath the surface: “athleisure” is on the rise.

As we’ve covered since 2023, the “quiet luxury“ and “old-money“ aesthetic has been trending in China. From 2025 onward, this trend has evolved further: China’s “old-money” consumers are increasingly embracing sports, and their attitude toward luxury is shifting—from using brands as status symbols to focusing on how clothing feels on their bodies.

A simple “no-logo” or understated design no longer satisfies the “old-money” consumer. This aesthetic has gradually evolved into a broader lifestyle system, encompassing diet, leisure activities, vacations, and, most importantly, sports and overall health routines.

In urban Chinese cities, it has become common for professionals to wear sportswear four or more days a week. Sportswear is no longer purely functional—it is increasingly what urban professionals choose for social and even work occasions.

As sports leisure (”athleisure”) becomes trendy, more middle-class consumers are upgrading their choices in this category. The sports you practice now say a lot about your personality, taste, and social circles.

In fact, consumers are increasingly adding their own “aesthetic” preferences to professional running shoes and sportswear brands. On Chinese social media, you often see brands like On and Kolon linked with “old money” and athleisure styling—even in non-professional sports scenarios, urban elites are flocking to wear these brands for leisure and commuting.

Interestingly, the keyword “athleisure”—written in English—has been growing particularly fast on Chinese social media, especially Xiaohongshu (Red Note). This is no coincidence: China’s high-income urban elites, often internationally educated and English-proficient, are the leading group driving this lifestyle.

Subscribe now

The big picture: spending by middle-class and affluent consumers is recovering

One telling piece of evidence that China’s affluent consumer base is spending again is the recovery of luxury sales since H2 last year. This recovery trend continued into January and February this year after the Chinese New Year.

According to our offline payment data, most luxury brands posted positive year-on-year growth in January-February, with sequential improvement from Q4.

But Ralph Lauren emerged as the biggest winner, with +88% growth (vs Q4 +47%), significantly outperforming other luxury houses—for instance: Hermès (+13%), Louis Vuitton (+2%), Gucci (-4%), YSL (-5%), Dior (+5%), and Prada Group (+3%).

This is no coincidence. For one, Ralph Lauren not only offers stronger sporty aesthetics and functional designs, but also uses more skin-friendly fabrics like cotton, making it a brand people genuinely choose to wear for actual exercise.

Brand Performance & Investment Implications

So what’s the takeaway for investors?

First, I believe there is a structural tailwind for sports and health in general, given the recovery of middle-class and affluent spending combined with the “athleisure” fashion trend.

This comes against the backdrop of major sporting events—the Winter Olympics and upcoming World Cup have sustained momentum in sports spending, especially Anta. As the official uniform provider for Chinese athletic teams, Anta has enjoyed significant brand exposure.

Domestic brands are already seeing accelerated growth. According to our online and offline tracking, Anta’s

full-channel sales improved significantly: +9% YoY in January-February 2026, a sharp turnaround from -7% in

Q4 and -10% in December 2025.

But I believe “athleisure” brands such as On, Lululemon, and Arc’teryx could enjoy even stronger growth.

The confluence of two factors creates a powerful tailwind. First, value-based premium is emerging—consumers are not just buying functional sportswear, they’re buying identity. Premium brands are likely to outperform. Second, usage scenarios are extending beyond “exercising” to “commuting,” “dating,” “working”—this means consumers buy more, buy more frequently.

The data support this.

Subscribe now

Read more

As China’s leading cloud service provider, Alibaba Cloud empowers enterprises and developers with advanced cloud infrastructure and AI solutions. Join us for an exclusive meeting with the team to explore their latest innovations in AI-driven cloud services, the evolution of large-scale AI platforms, and how businesses are transforming in the AI era.

Why This Tour is Unparalleled

The global investment community is witnessing a massive resurgence of interest in China’s “Hard Tech” sectors—specifically Generative AI, Humanoid Robotics and Driverless L4 Robotaxi. However, headlines and research reports only tell the surface-level story. To truly grasp the scale, velocity, and real-world integration of these technologies, you must experience them on the ground.

This tour offers a rare look into the “vibe” of China’s innovation engine, through:

• Deep-dive networking: We skip the standard corporate walkthroughs. Engage in candid, closed-door conversations with C-level executives, founders, and industry pioneers.

• Insider investment perspectives: We will travel alongside seasoned investors who have backed China’s leading AI and robotics ventures. Gain raw, unfiltered insights into market trends and valuation realities.

• Experience real-world applications: We move beyond the pitch deck. Ride in Robotaxis, witness industrial robots in action, and explore AI-native consumer communities.

You will gain a clear, actionable understanding of:

• How Chinese AI startups bypass theoretical bottlenecks to rapidly deploy cutting-edge models into high-value commercial use cases.

• A firsthand look at the new paradigm where a new generation of entrepreneurs and government sectors co-evolve to de-risk frontier innovation.

• Why China’s massive manufacturing base is no longer just a “factory floor,” but a critical R&D partner that accelerates the prototyping and scaling of high-tech hardware.

• A realistic assessment of China’s positioning in the global tech landscape, identifying where the ecosystem remains most resilient and where the next growth “inflection points” lie.

English service: The entire program is tailored for international professionals. All members of the Baiguan team and all guest speakers from the companies we’ll visit can converse in English to ensure seamless communication.

Itinerary Overview

This is a 2.5-day immersive program. The detailed daily schedule will be shared with registered participants approximately one week before the tour.

Day 1

Location: Xuhui Riverside (West Bund), Shanghai

About Xuhui Riverside: Known as the core cluster of China’s AI industry, Xuhui Riverside houses nearly 90% of Shanghai’s AI startups. It operates under a unique “Double A” strategy (AI + Art), blending high-tech innovation with a modern, sophisticated lifestyle. The area integrates diverse elements such as art, finance, technology innovation, and sports. Participants will also learn how Shanghai attracts and nurtures tech talent through government policy support for the AI and hard-tech industries.

Welcome Meeting & Ice-breaking

Seminar by Baiguan Team:

• Current Landscape of China’s AI and Technology — Strategic policy, the AI ecosystem, and an introduction to the program, including the companies we will be visiting.

• Investment Themes, Ideas, and Opportunities — A discussion on sectors driving structural growth in China.

Welcome Dinner

Day 2 & Day 3

Inside China’s AI Incubator: Shanghai Foundation Model Innovation Center (魔速空间), Xuhui Riverside

About Shanghai Foundation Model Innovation Center: A premier, government-backed incubator where 80% of resident startups are in Pre-A stages. Covering LLM applications and Industrial AI, it is considered a “living laboratory” for early-stage AI projects in China. Access is typically restricted to industrial and strategic capital; this tour provides an exclusive gateway.

We will conduct in-depth visits to 2-3 representative startup companies, engaging in direct discussions with the founders on key issues such as technological barriers, China’s startup ecosystem, and commercialization paths.

• Incubator Walkthrough: Meet startups and experience live demos of the latest robotics, AI, and other cutting-edge technological products and developments.

• Cyber Partner Technology (魂伴科技): Implementation layer is getting more and more important, and will be ultimately responsible for translating robotics hardware into actual commercial usage. Cyber Partner Technology is a leading robotics integrator. Its “large robots + AI algorithms” integration solutions have been implemented in over 20 industries, including automotive and 3C manufacturing. We will visit the production line-level robotics dispatch site and engage in a conversation with the founder about pathways for “AI + robotics.”

• Nieta Art (捏Ta): Founded by a Meta veteran, Nieta is China’s largest AI-native content community. Meet the CEO to discuss the shift in Gen-Z digital culture and company’s global expansion strategy.

Visits to China’s leading AI and robotics company

• Minimax (HKG: 0100): One of China’s leading, globally recognized LLM companies. Meet with the team to discuss the latest developments in foundation models and commercial applications.(Exact identity of the company will be shared upon request.)

• JAKA Robotics (捷卡机器人): A leading manufacturer of collaborative robotics (cobot). Learn about China’s rapidly growing industrial robotics sector and the automation revolution in manufacturing.

• Pony.ai (NASDAQ: PONY): Experience a Robotaxi ride firsthand.

  Seminar: Steven Xiao, who invested in Pony.ai’s Series B round in 2018, will share exclusive perspectives on Pony.ai and China’s broader robotaxi development, the current status of the autonomous driving technology, the path toward robotaxi commercialization, investment impacts, as well as the social implications.

• Alibaba Cloud (NYSE: BABA): China’s leading cloud service provider, powering enterprises and developers with cutting-edge cloud infrastructure and AI solutions. Meet with the team to explore Alibaba Cloud’s innovations in AI-driven cloud services, the development of large-scale AI platforms, and opportunities for enterprise transformation in the AI era.

Optional experiential activities

This is also your opportunity to experience the vibrant (AI + Art) “Double A” ecosystem in the Xuhui Riverside area, and get a sense of the trendy lifestyle, consumer AIs, and other consumer trends in China. We invite you to optionally join us and explore the lively nightlife, restaurants, fashion, and other experiences this region has to offer. April is also an ideal time to enjoy a walk with a breezy wind and beautiful riverside landscape in Shanghai.

Who will you meet: C-level executives, founders, experts, and industry leaders from startups. We will also meet the Chief Ecosystem Officer of Shanghai Foundation Model Innovation Center, who will provide us with an extensive network and unmatched, direct access to the founders and executives of these high-growth startups.

*All of our visits on day 1 will be within walking distance in the Xuhui Riverside area. Please wear comfortable shoes. We recommend booking a hotel close to Xuhui Riverside.

*Shuttle rides will be arranged for Day 2 and Day 3.

Pricing & Signup

To maintain the quality and focus of this program—and to ensure meaningful interactions among investors and industry leaders—we are accepting participants by application only. Limited to 20 seats.

• Standard Tour Price: $3,000 USD per person for the 2.5-day event

• Early Bird Discount: $2,860 USD per person for registrations completed by March 20

• Baiguan Tour Returnee Discount: $2,100 USD per person for participants who have previously joined a Baiguan tour

What’s Included:

• All scheduled company visits and seminars

• All lunch and dinners

• All ground transportation during the tour

What’s Not Included:

• International/domestic flights to/from Shanghai

• Chinese visa application fees

• Travel insurance

• Personal expenses

• Breakfasts

• Hotels

To apply, please click or scan to fill out this Google form: RSVP: 2026 Shanghai AI & Robotics Innovation Tour

What to expect:

• After receiving your response, our team will get in touch within 1 business day to schedule your payment process and discuss the next steps.

  We understand that emails can sometimes end up in your spam folder. If you don’t hear from us within 1 business day, please check your spam folder.

• Once your payment is processed, your seat will be officially secured. We will follow up with an email to gather additional details to enhance your experience, such as arrival information, dietary restrictions, or any special accommodation needs.

• About one week before the program begins, we will reach out with the exact daily schedules, meeting spots, and an introductory brochure about the companies we will be visiting. We will also create a designated WeChat group for participants and invite you to join.

Logistics & Accommodation

Accommodation: Participants should book their own accommodation.

Recommended Stays: We strongly recommend booking at either the Urcove by HYATT Shanghai Xuhui West Riverside Hotel or the MGM Shanghai West Bund Hotel. These hotels are within comfortable walking distance of our primary visit locations and are also located in a vibrant area that blends the AI + art lifestyle and experiences.

Transportation:

• Day 1: All activities will be within walking distance.

• Day 2 & 3: We will arrange shuttle rides. The shuttle will stop at the recommended MGM Shanghai West Bund to pick up participants on Day 2 & 3. If you choose to stay at a different hotel, please plan on meeting the group in the lobby of the recommended hotel before the program begins.

Testimonials from Previous Tours

“About halfway through the tour, we went out to dinner, and it was a notable turning point where everyone loosened up. One great aspect of this tour is that the interest and domain is specific enough to draw out a diverse set of backgrounds, all of whom you’re interested in getting to know, and beyond getting the opportunity to pick everyone’s brains, you can become friends as well.” — Tech industry expert

“Came with intention to learn more about China, ended up with not only succeeding the original intention but also meeting new friends with diverse backgrounds. “ — Family office 2nd generation leader

I just want to thank Robert, Amber and both the Baiguan + FO Insights team for organizing this China Tour. It has been such a wonderful experience for me. One memorable experience was visiting Yowant’s X27 mall. Just mind-blown by the sheer scale of livestreaming in China. This is unlike any other “investor trip” and I really got to meet many interesting companies, analysts and other financial experts on the ground. Thank you so much! :)— Investor & entrepreneur

Deep Robotics demonstration of their robots, visitng Ali baba cloud center and Xi hu university

It was an incredible opportunity to gain first hand exposure to the Chinese consumer market and witness how homegrown tech companies are playing a crucial role in AI/robotics space. The Baiguan and FOI team deep connections and expertise in the market definitely helped contextualized some of the market nuances.

— Fintech Senior management, personal investor

Baiguan’s tour has provided independent, objective and insightful perspectives for global investors. — CIO private wealth

The Baiguan China Discovery Tour provided a unique opportunity to meet with a number of businesses from different industries. The presentations and discussions gave a good idea about the business models and how they deal with the current situation in the Chinese market. It was an action packed program that gave us many new insights.

But the best was how the group spirit evolved, fueled by the hosts’ organizing skills and hospitality. We came as individual professionals interested in getting to know China on the ground. We left as a group of friends sharing an exceptional experience. — Founder, AI-based cloud solution

For more details about our previous programs and field trip notes, visit:

2025 Program

2025 Field Trip Highlights

Important Policies

Refunds & Cancellations:

• Cancel ≥7 days before the tour start date → Full Refund

• Cancel <7 days before the start date (any reason, including visa issues) → No Refund

• Requests must be sent in writing to baiguan@bigonelab.com

Visa Application: We strongly urge all non-Chinese passport holders to begin their visa application process immediately upon registration. Participants are responsible for securing valid passports and visas. Failure to obtain a visa is not an exception to the refund policy. To be eligible for a full refund, you must cancel before April 14, 2026. Please plan your visa application accordingly.

Travel Insurance: Strongly recommended to protect against unexpected events (medical emergencies, cancellations, lost luggage, etc.).

Perks

All participants will receive a free 1-year Baiguan subscription. Already a paid subscriber? We’ll extend your subscription by 12 months.

About Baiguan and BigOne Lab

Baiguan Newsletter is owned by BigOne Lab, a data-driven market research and information services company. Founded in 2016, BigOne Lab leverages alternative data to provide clients with insightful, objective, and actionable solutions.

Our data solutions currently cover more than 10 industries and 200,000+ businesses, spanning hundreds of business metrics. Our clients include 100+ investment funds, sovereign wealth funds, PE/VC investors, leading consulting companies, consumer companies and internet companies, among others.

Share

Just last year, the majority of people likely agreed that AI-generated videos would remain “toy projects” for a very long time. After all, it was easy to spot an AI video by its awkward hand gestures or the “almost” human-like faces that sparked the uncanny valley effect.

But it seems the narrative is shifting rapidly. In fact, I personally think entertainment, in general, will become one of the biggest markets as a result of the proliferation of AI tool development. Video-making is starting to emerge as the first type of entertainment that can actually go beyond “toy projects” and begin to monetize.

As early as May of last year, the hype over AI-generated short dramas gained a significant amount of attention on Chinese social media. Many netizens started to explore the possibility of becoming real film directors. (Last May also happened to be when Google released Veo 3, whose high-fidelity video quality made cinematic realism a possibility.)

However, these attempts didn’t become a massive sensation back then, partly because the visual quality was still lacking, and partly because they were limited by the high expenses of using video models on a routine basis. But this has quietly shifted coming into 2026. Several interesting things have happened in just a few months:

When the award-winning director makes an AI film

First, renowned award-winning Chinese director Jia Zhangke released an AI film in February, starring an AI version of himself. Although this was not his first attempt at AI filmmaking (he made an AI movie back in 2024), this new release still created a sensation on the Chinese internet. Jia used the Seedance 2.0 model—the latest release from ByteDance—to produce the movie, and its near-perfect image quality sparked awe across Chinese social media.

Jia Zhangke’s AI video “山河故人” created using Seedance 2.0, starring the AI version of himself, total 5:31 in length

The sensation surrounding Jia’s movie went viral mainly because of his reputation in China as one of the country’s most important and respected filmmakers. The fact that a time-honored director remains so open to AI technology says a lot about the creative industry. However, the film’s plot itself—which involves profound, philosophical questions about the ownership of films in the AI age—could feel slow to ordinary audiences.

When AI engineers irresistible dopamine spikes: AI short drama

Soon after, something that truly resonated with netizens started to break out and go viral online: the “CatFu” reels took the Chinese internet by storm. These short videos feature tabby cats in traditional Chinese Kung Fu attire, using AI to replace human actors in scenes that mimic classic 1970s Hong Kong Shaw Brothers martial arts films. After the inaugural reels went viral, “CatFu” quickly became a popular series.

After watching a few, I have to admit that these are definitely beyond “toy project” videos. They are actually something I would watch through (and perhaps I would happily accept any ads embedded in them, just like standard reels produced by humans). What caught people’s attention wasn’t just the near-perfect realism, but the funny plots and exciting turns of events packed into just under 20 seconds.

For instance, this one cracks me up:

These are early signs that AI-made short videos are starting to become truly monetizable.

However, I do have reservations regarding copyright issues, as CatFu‘s viral success is largely due to the deep nostalgia and lasting legacy of the Shaw Brothers’ classic martial arts films.

But soon after, a completely original AI-generated short drama, Huo Qubing 霍去病, went viral. With no real actors or live shooting, it relied entirely on AI tools via the “Nanoman AI production line” (纳米漫剧流水线), a first-of-its-kind industrial AI cartoon platform in China.

Featuring epic war scenes, the drama gained attention for allegedly costing only 3,000 RMB, being made in 48 hours, and reaching 500 million views. Although the director later clarified that the 3,000 RMB covered only the AI computing costs, that the team included around 20 people, and that production lasted four intense days, the cost was still astonishingly low for such high viewership results.

AI productions are now demonstrating the potential to cost far less than traditional short dramas (thousands versus hundreds of thousands of RMB per episode) and can be produced in days rather than months.

According to industry statistics from DataEye-ADX, the number of domestic AI-generated short dramas (including AI live-action and AI cartoons) released in January 2026 reached 14,634. This averages out to over 470 new releases per day—equivalent to a new drama launching every minute and a half.

Just a few days ago, rumors of a “massive shift in short dramas” sparked heated discussions in the industry. Topics like “Hongguo and others will reduce investment in live-action short dramas” dominated Weibo’s trending search list for consecutive days. (Hongguo is a short-drama platform owned by ByteDance).

In fact, since the beginning of the year, several AI live-action dramas have become massive breakout hits: Zhanxian Tai AI Live-Action Version topped Hongguo’s hit cartoon list within two days of its release, exceeding 100 million views in six days; The Lawful Daughter Weeps Blood, Mother Overturns the Imperial Family amassed over 230 million views, topping industry charts; and Douyin’s Milk Dumpling Empress Dowager’s Palace Schemes and other works have also surpassed 200 million views.

- 36kr.com

This brings us to a fascinating quirk of AI video models: they are built to spike dopamine, not for people to think and reflect deeply. If a generated video has a slight temporal glitch in the background, or if the AI doesn’t perfectly render the physics of shattering glass, no one cares. The audience for a vertical short drama is scrolling on a subway commute, looking for a quick emotional hit. They are paying for the dopamine spike, such as the moment the underdog slaps the arrogant villain.

As we covered in previous newsletters, China’s short-video drama sector is already a billion-RMB industry and is even exporting its productions abroad, as seen in the boom of Chinese-made short dramas in the U.S. Now, these vast amounts of short dramas are becoming the training data that makes cheap AI productions a reality.

Chinese models have ingested oceans of this highly specific aesthetic data. They know exactly how to render the dramatic lighting of a CEO’s corner office or the ethereal glow of a Xianxia (Eastern fantasy) realm. They are skipping the pursuit of perfect physical reality to over-index on emotional and visual hooks. It’s the visual equivalent of junk food: engineered to be irresistible, cheap to produce, but highly profitable.

Subscribe now

When AI integrates into more ‘legitimate’ productions

If mass-produced “junk food” doesn’t seem convincing enough that the AI video industry is becoming a reality, perhaps examples of AI integration in more “legitimate” TV shows and movies will be compelling.

For instance, in the TV show Swords Into Plowshares (太平年), which just premiered this January, Kuaishou’s Kling AI video models were integrated into the production workflow. This is absolutely not a “fast-food” production; it is a high-quality historical drama set between the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms periods, focusing on political intrigue, warfare, and the unification of China into the early Northern Song dynasty. The show quickly became one of the most-watched dramas of the year so far.

According to an interview with Chen Yi, founder of Time Axis (时光坐标)—the visual effects team for the show—Swords Into Plowshares production employed AI extensively in both virtual scenes and special effects, with notable contributions from Kling AI. AI accelerated production efficiency: for instance, storm scenes that traditionally took two months were completed in just two weeks using AI-assisted workflows.

For instance, in Swords Into Plowshares, the stormy naval battle scenes utilized Kling AI to generate the fluid dynamics of the ocean waves. This was then layered with 3D modeling to refine the details of the warships and compositing techniques to achieve the final rain effects. The end result far exceeded expectations—improving efficiency by 8 to 10 times while maintaining professional-grade cinematic standards. [*]

Kuaishou’s Kling AI 3.0 now serves as a professional-grade creative partner for over 30,000 enterprises worldwide, enabling high-quality, commercially viable AI content generation.

I believe 2026 is only the beginning of the AI film industry, and more and more teams will be seriously asking: “How can we use AI to put on a great show and get paid today?” Gone are the days when we could easily dismiss AI videos as “toy projects.” This shift is going to present real growth opportunities—not just for filmmakers, but also for the companies building the models and workflow integration tools.

Subscribe now

Reminder

Baiguan is hosting the AI & Robotics Innovation Tour in Shanghai from April 21–23. We will be visiting and experiencing generative AI, robotics, and robotaxis. There will also be an opportunity to see China’s startups and learn how they are producing AI-native content, games, and communities beyond just video making.

If you are interested in coming to China to explore frontier tech and startups, don’t forget to check out our itinerary and invitation to RSVP here.

The global investment community is witnessing a massive resurgence of interest in China’s “Hard Tech” sectors—specifically Generative AI, Humanoid Robotics and Driverless L4 Robotaxi. However, headlines and research reports only tell the surface-level story. To truly grasp the scale, velocity, and real-world integration of these technologies, you must experience them on the ground.

This tour offers a rare look into the “vibe” of China’s innovation engine, through:

• Deep-dive networking: We skip the standard corporate walkthroughs. Engage in candid, closed-door conversations with C-level executives, founders, and industry pioneers.

• Insider investment perspectives: We will travel alongside seasoned investors who have backed China’s leading AI and robotics ventures. Gain raw, unfiltered insights into market trends and valuation realities.

• Experience real-world applications: We move beyond the pitch deck. Ride in Robotaxis, witness industrial robots in action, and explore AI-native consumer communities.

You will gain a clear, actionable understanding of:

• How Chinese AI startups bypass theoretical bottlenecks to rapidly deploy cutting-edge models into high-value commercial use cases.

• A firsthand look at the new paradigm where a new generation of entrepreneurs and government sectors co-evolve to de-risk frontier innovation.

• Why China’s massive manufacturing base is no longer just a “factory floor,” but a critical R&D partner that accelerates the prototyping and scaling of high-tech hardware.

• A realistic assessment of China’s positioning in the global tech landscape, identifying where the ecosystem remains most resilient and where the next growth “inflection points” lie.

English service: The entire program is tailored for international professionals. All members of the Baiguan team and all guest speakers from the companies we’ll visit can converse in English to ensure seamless communication.

Itinerary Overview

This is a 2.5-day immersive program. The detailed daily schedule will be shared with registered participants approximately one week before the tour.

Day 1

Location: Xuhui Riverside (West Bund), Shanghai

About Xuhui Riverside: Known as the core cluster of China’s AI industry, Xuhui Riverside houses nearly 90% of Shanghai’s AI startups. It operates under a unique “Double A” strategy (AI + Art), blending high-tech innovation with a modern, sophisticated lifestyle. The area integrates diverse elements such as art, finance, technology innovation, and sports. Participants will also learn how Shanghai attracts and nurtures tech talent through government policy support for the AI and hard-tech industries.

Welcome Meeting & Ice-breaking

Seminar by Baiguan Team:

• Current Landscape of China’s AI and Technology — Strategic policy, the AI ecosystem, and an introduction to the program, including the companies we will be visiting.

• Investment Themes, Ideas, and Opportunities — A discussion on sectors driving structural growth in China.

Welcome Dinner

Day 2 & Day 3

Inside China’s AI Incubator: Shanghai Foundation Model Innovation Center (魔速空间), Xuhui Riverside

About Shanghai Foundation Model Innovation Center: A premier, government-backed incubator where 80% of resident startups are in Pre-A stages. Covering LLM applications and Industrial AI, it is considered a “living laboratory” for early-stage AI projects in China. Access is typically restricted to industrial and strategic capital; this tour provides an exclusive gateway.

We will conduct in-depth visits to 2-3 representative startup companies, engaging in direct discussions with the founders on key issues such as technological barriers, China’s startup ecosystem, and commercialization paths.

• Incubator Walkthrough: Meet startups and experience live demos of the latest robotics, AI, and other cutting-edge technological products and developments.

• Cyber Partner Technology (魂伴科技): Implementation layer is getting more and more important, and will be ultimately responsible for translating robotics hardware into actual commercial usage. Cyber Partner Technology is a leading robotics integrator. Its “large robots + AI algorithms” integration solutions have been implemented in over 20 industries, including automotive and 3C manufacturing. We will visit the production line-level robotics dispatch site and engage in a conversation with the founder about pathways for “AI + robotics.”

• Nieta Art (捏Ta): Founded by a Meta veteran, Nieta is China’s largest AI-native content community. Meet the CEO to discuss the shift in Gen-Z digital culture and company’s global expansion strategy.

Visits to China’s leading AI and robotics company

• One of China’s leading, globally recognised LLM companies. Meet with the team to discuss the latest developments in foundation models and commercial applications.(Exact identity of the company will be shared upon request.)

• JAKA Robotics (捷卡机器人): A leading manufacturer of collaborative robotics (cobot). Learn about China’s rapidly growing industrial robotics sector and the automation revolution in manufacturing.

• Pony.ai (NASDAQ: PONY): Experience a Robotaxi ride firsthand.

  Seminar: Steven Xiao, who invested in Pony.ai’s Series B round in 2018, will share exclusive perspectives on Pony.ai and China’s broader robotaxi development, the current status of the autonomous driving technology, the path toward robotaxi commercialization, investment impacts, as well as the social implications.

Optional experiential activities

This is also your opportunity to experience the vibrant (AI + Art) “Double A” ecosystem in the Xuhui Riverside area, and get a sense of the trendy lifestyle, consumer AIs, and other consumer trends in China. We invite you to optionally join us and explore the lively nightlife, restaurants, fashion, and other experiences this region has to offer. April is also an ideal time to enjoy a walk with a breezy wind and beautiful riverside landscape in Shanghai.

Who will you meet: C-level executives, founders, experts, and industry leaders from startups. We will also meet the Chief Ecosystem Officer of Shanghai Foundation Model Innovation Center, who will provide us with an extensive network and unmatched, direct access to the founders and executives of these high-growth startups.

*All of our visits on day 1 will be within walking distance in the Xuhui Riverside area. Please wear comfortable shoes. We recommend booking a hotel close to Xuhui Riverside.

*Shuttle rides will be arranged for Day 2 and Day 3.

Pricing & Signup

To maintain the quality and focus of this program—and to ensure meaningful interactions among investors and industry leaders—we are accepting participants by application only. Limited to 20 seats.

• Standard Tour Price: $3,000 USD per person for the 2.5-day event

• Early Bird Discount: $2,860 USD per person for registrations completed by March 20

• Baiguan Tour Returnee Discount: $2,100 USD per person for participants who have previously joined a Baiguan tour

What’s Included:

• All scheduled company visits and seminars

• All lunch and dinners

• All ground transportation during the tour

What’s Not Included:

• International/domestic flights to/from Shanghai

• Chinese visa application fees

• Travel insurance

• Personal expenses

• Breakfasts

• Hotels

To apply, please click or scan to fill out this Google form: RSVP: 2026 Shanghai AI & Robotics Innovation Tour

What to expect:

• After receiving your response, our team will get in touch within 1 business day to schedule your payment process and discuss the next steps.

  We understand that emails can sometimes end up in your spam folder. If you don’t hear from us within 1 business day, please check your spam folder.

• Once your payment is processed, your seat will be officially secured. We will follow up with an email to gather additional details to enhance your experience, such as arrival information, dietary restrictions, or any special accommodation needs.

• About one week before the program begins, we will reach out with the exact daily schedules, meeting spots, and an introductory brochure about the companies we will be visiting. We will also create a designated WeChat group for participants and invite you to join.

Logistics & Accommodation

Accommodation: Participants should book their own accommodation.

Recommended Stays: We strongly recommend booking at either the Urcove by HYATT Shanghai Xuhui West Riverside Hotel or the MGM Shanghai West Bund Hotel. These hotels are within comfortable walking distance of our primary visit locations and are also located in a vibrant area that blends the AI + art lifestyle and experiences.

Transportation:

• Day 1: All activities will be within walking distance.

• Day 2 & 3: We will arrange shuttle rides. The shuttle will stop at the recommended MGM Shanghai West Bund to pick up participants on Day 2 & 3. If you choose to stay at a different hotel, please plan on meeting the group in the lobby of the recommended hotel before the program begins.

Testimonials from Previous Tours

“About halfway through the tour, we went out to dinner, and it was a notable turning point where everyone loosened up. One great aspect of this tour is that the interest and domain is specific enough to draw out a diverse set of backgrounds, all of whom you’re interested in getting to know, and beyond getting the opportunity to pick everyone’s brains, you can become friends as well.” — Tech industry expert

“Came with intention to learn more about China, ended up with not only succeeding the original intention but also meeting new friends with diverse backgrounds. “ — Family office 2nd generation leader

I just want to thank Robert, Amber and both the Baiguan + FO Insights team for organizing this China Tour. It has been such a wonderful experience for me. One memorable experience was visiting Yowant’s X27 mall. Just mind-blown by the sheer scale of livestreaming in China. This is unlike any other “investor trip” and I really got to meet many interesting companies, analysts and other financial experts on the ground. Thank you so much! :)— Investor & entrepreneur

Deep Robotics demonstration of their robots, visitng Ali baba cloud center and Xi hu university

It was an incredible opportunity to gain first hand exposure to the Chinese consumer market and witness how homegrown tech companies are playing a crucial role in AI/robotics space. The Baiguan and FOI team deep connections and expertise in the market definitely helped contextualized some of the market nuances.

— Fintech Senior management, personal investor

Baiguan’s tour has provided independent, objective and insightful perspectives for global investors. — CIO private wealth

The Baiguan China Discovery Tour provided a unique opportunity to meet with a number of businesses from different industries. The presentations and discussions gave a good idea about the business models and how they deal with the current situation in the Chinese market. It was an action packed program that gave us many new insights.

But the best was how the group spirit evolved, fueled by the hosts’ organizing skills and hospitality. We came as individual professionals interested in getting to know China on the ground. We left as a group of friends sharing an exceptional experience. — Founder, AI-based cloud solution

For more details about our previous programs and field trip notes, visit:

2025 Program

2025 Field Trip Highlights

Important Policies

Refunds & Cancellations:

• Cancel ≥7 days before the tour start date → Full Refund

• Cancel <7 days before the start date (any reason, including visa issues) → No Refund

• Requests must be sent in writing to baiguan@bigonelab.com

Visa Application: We strongly urge all non-Chinese passport holders to begin their visa application process immediately upon registration. Participants are responsible for securing valid passports and visas. Failure to obtain a visa is not an exception to the refund policy. To be eligible for a full refund, you must cancel before April 14, 2026. Please plan your visa application accordingly.

Travel Insurance: Strongly recommended to protect against unexpected events (medical emergencies, cancellations, lost luggage, etc.).

Perks

All participants will receive a free 1-year Baiguan subscription. Already a paid subscriber? We’ll extend your subscription by 12 months.

About Baiguan and BigOne Lab

Baiguan Newsletter is owned by BigOne Lab, a data-driven market research and information services company. Founded in 2016, BigOne Lab leverages alternative data to provide clients with insightful, objective, and actionable solutions.

Our data solutions currently cover more than 10 industries and 200,000+ businesses, spanning hundreds of business metrics. Our clients include 100+ investment funds, sovereign wealth funds, PE/VC investors, leading consulting companies, consumer companies and internet companies, among others.

Share

The global investment community is witnessing a massive resurgence of interest in China’s “Hard Tech” sectors—specifically Generative AI, Humanoid Robotics and Driverless L4 Robotaxi. However, headlines and research reports only tell the surface-level story. To truly grasp the scale, velocity, and real-world integration of these technologies, you must experience them on the ground.

This tour offers a rare look into the “vibe” of China’s innovation engine, through:

• Deep-dive networking: We skip the standard corporate walkthroughs. Engage in candid, closed-door conversations with C-level executives, founders, and industry pioneers.

• Insider investment perspectives: We will travel alongside seasoned investors who have backed China’s leading AI and robotics ventures. Gain raw, unfiltered insights into market trends and valuation realities.

• Experience real-world applications: We move beyond the pitch deck. Ride in Robotaxis, witness industrial robots in action, and explore AI-native consumer communities.

You will gain a clear, actionable understanding of:

• How Chinese AI startups bypass theoretical bottlenecks to rapidly deploy cutting-edge models into high-value commercial use cases.

• A firsthand look at the new paradigm where a new generation of entrepreneurs and government sectors co-evolve to de-risk frontier innovation.

• Why China’s massive manufacturing base is no longer just a “factory floor,” but a critical R&D partner that accelerates the prototyping and scaling of high-tech hardware.

• A realistic assessment of China’s positioning in the global tech landscape, identifying where the ecosystem remains most resilient and where the next growth “inflection points” lie.

English service: The entire program is tailored for international professionals. All members of the Baiguan team and all guest speakers from the companies we’ll visit can converse in English to ensure seamless communication.

📅 Itinerary Overview

Day 1: April 21 (Tuesday, half-day) – The Heart of China’s AI Startup Hub

Location: Xuhui Riverside (West Bund) Conference Center

About Xuhui Riverside: Known as the core cluster of China’s AI industry, Xuhui Riverside houses nearly 90% of Shanghai’s AI startups. It operates under a unique “Double A” strategy (AI + Art), blending high-tech innovation with a modern, sophisticated lifestyle. The area integrates diverse elements such as art, finance, technology innovation, and sports. Participants will also learn how Shanghai attracts and nurtures tech talent through government policy support for the AI and hard-tech industries.

Afternoon Activities:

• 2:00 PM: Welcome Meeting & Ice-breaking.

• Seminar by Baiguan Team:

  • 2:30 PM to 3:15 PM - Session 1: Current Landscape of China’s AI and Technology: Strategic policy, the AI ecosystem, and an introduction to the 2-day program, including the companies we will be visiting.

  • 3:15 PM to 3:30 PM - Tea/Coffee Break

• 3:30 PM to 4:15 PM - Session 2: Investment Themes, Ideas, and Opportunities: A discussion on sectors driving structural growth in China.

• 4:15 PM to 5:00 PM - Q&A & networking with the group

• 5:30 PM: Welcome Dinner (Location TBD)

Day 2: April 22 (Wednesday) – Inside the AI Incubator

Location: Shanghai Foundation Model Innovation Center (魔速空间), Xuhui Riverside

About Shanghai Foundation Model Innovation Center: A premier, government-backed incubator where 80% of resident startups are in Pre-A stages. Covering LLM applications and Industrial AI, it is considered a “living laboratory” for early-stage AI projects in China. Access is typically restricted to industrial and strategic capital; this tour provides an exclusive gateway.

We will conduct in-depth visits to 2-3 representative startup companies, engaging in direct discussions with the founders on key issues such as technological barriers, China’s startup ecosystem, and commercialization paths.

Morning Activities:

• Incubator Walkthrough: Meet startups and experience live demos of the latest robotics, AI, and other cutting-edge technological products and developments.

• Cyber Partner Technology (魂伴科技): Implementation layer is getting more and more important, and will be ultimately responsible for translating robotics hardware into actual commercial usage. Cyber Partner Technology is a leading robotics integrator. Its “large robots + AI algorithms” integration solutions have been implemented in over 20 industries, including automotive and 3C manufacturing. We will visit the production line-level robotics dispatch site and engage in a conversation with the founder about pathways for “AI + robotics.”

Afternoon Activities:

• Nieta Art (捏Ta): Founded by a Meta veteran, Nieta is China’s largest AI-native content community. Meet the CEO to discuss the shift in Gen-Z digital culture and company’s global expansion strategy.

• Other Select AI Startups: (TBD)

Who will you meet: C-level executives, founders, experts, and industry leaders from startups. We will also meet the Chief Ecosystem Officer of Shanghai Foundation Model Innovation Center, who will provide us with an extensive network and unmatched, direct access to the founders and executives of these high-growth startups

Dinner @ TBD: We will invite local entrepreneurs and investors to join us for networking.

Optional: This is also your opportunity to experience the vibrant (AI + Art) “Double A” ecosystem in the Xuhui Riverside area, and get a sense of the trendy lifestyle, consumer AIs, and other consumer trends in China. After dinner, we invite you to optionally explore the lively nightlife, restaurants, fashion, and other experiences this region has to offer.

*All of our visits on day 1 & 2 will be within walking distance in the Xuhui Riverside area. Please wear comfortable shoes.

*We recommend booking a hotel close to Xuhui Riverside. April is also an ideal time to enjoy a walk with a breezy wind and beautiful riverside landscape in Shanghai.

Day 3: April 23 (Thursday) – Hard Tech & Robotaxi

Location: Caohejing (漕河泾) Tech Park

Morning Activities:

• Robotaxi Riding Experience on Pony.ai (NASDAQ: PONY): Participants will experience a Robotaxi ride firsthand.

• Seminar Guided by Steven Xiao: Steven invested in Pony.ai’s Series B round in 2018 and will share exclusive perspectives on Pony.ai and China’s broader robotaxi development, the current status of the autonomous driving technology, the path toward robotaxi commercialization, investment impacts, as well as the social implications.

After Activities:

Company visit to one or more of the leading LLM and robotics companies including:

• LLM companies

  • Minimax

  • Zhipu AI (Knowledge Atlas)

• Robotics

  • Agibot, one of China’s leading robotics companies

  • Fourier Robotics, one of China’s leading robotics companies

  • Jaka Robotics, leading manufacturer of robotics hand

These visits are TBD, pending companies’ review of the tentative list of attendeees.

Farewell dinner @ TBD

*We will arrange shuttle rides for the full Day-2 program.

Logistics & Accommodation

Accommodation: Participants should book their own accommodation.

Recommended Stays:

We strongly recommend booking at either the Xuhui Riverside Hyatt Hotel or the MGM Hotel.

These hotels are within comfortable walking distance of our primary visit locations and are also located in a vibrant area that blends the AI + art lifestyle and experiences.

Transportation:

Day 1 and Day 2: All activities will be within walking distance.

Day 3: We will arrange shuttle rides. The shuttle will stop at the Xuhui Riverside Hyatt Hotel to pick up participants on Day 3. If you choose to stay at a different hotel, please plan on meeting the group in the lobby of the Xuhui Riverside Hyatt Hotel before the program begins.

What’s included

•All scheduled company visits and seminars.

•All lunch and dinners

•All ground transportation during the tour.

What’s not included

•International and domestic flights to/from Shanghai.

•Chinese visa application fees.

•Travel insurance.

•Personal expenses (e.g., souvenirs, additional beverages).

•Breakfasts

•Hotels

Pricing & Signup

To ensure an exclusive experience and provide full attention to our participants, we are limiting the program to only 20 seats.

• Standard Tour Price: $3,000 USD per person for the 2.5-day event.

• Early Bird Discount: $2,860 USD per person for registrations completed by [March 20].

• Baiguan Tour Returnee Discount: $2,100 USD per person for participants who have previously joined a Baiguan tour.

RSVP HERE: https://forms.gle/gnSjrQL4FwXNsYsu6 or scan the QR code. We will reach out within 1 business day.

About Baiguan and BigOne Lab

Baiguan Newsletter is owned by BigOne Lab. BigOne Lab is a data-driven market research and information services company. Founded in 2016, BigOne Lab leverages alternative data to provide clients with insightful, objective, and actionable solutions.

Our data solutions currently cover more than 10 industries and 200,000+ businesses, spanning hundreds of business metrics. Our clients include 100+ investment funds, sovereign wealth funds, PE/VC investors, leading consulting companies, consumer companies and internet companies, among others.

If you wonder how “low-sugar” rice is made, it uses a specific “boil-drain-steam” process. This program filters out a portion of the rice’s amylopectin (the component easily converted into sugar) along with the starchy rice water. Using a smart low-sugar rice cooker reportedly reduces the sugar content and caloric value of the rice.

While I didn’t delve deep into the scientific legitimacy of this method, its popularity signals something important: an increasing number of Chinese households are adopting the “low-sugar” trend and becoming more aware of daily sugar intake.

Subscribe now

The rise of “low-sugar” tastes

For a long time, sugary beverages remained popular in pop culture due to their soothing, stress-relieving effects, despite known health issues. Young Chinese consumers even coined a name for it: “Happy Fat-Boy Water“ (快乐肥宅水). Originally inspired by Japanese anime culture roughly a decade ago, the term refers to sugary carbonated drinks like Coke. In high-stress urban life, the happiness brought by a cup of Coke or sweetened milk tea has been considered a worthwhile indulgence, even at the expense of weight gain.

But the trend is changing.

Since late 2022, social media discussions regarding “no-sugar” and “low-sugar” lifestyles have surged as people become more health-conscious following the COVID pandemic. Choosing sugar-free beverages, once a habit limited to niche health-conscious groups, is quietly becoming a mainstream—and even fashionable—trend.

Part of this shift is driven by necessity. By 2024, China had the world’s largest diabetic population, reaching 140 million adults and accounting for over 25% of global cases. Overweight rates in Chinese adults increased from 37.4% in 2000 to over 41% in 2014, while obesity rose from 8.6% to nearly 13% during the same period [*].

These statistics may seem unintuitive; if you live in China, you might not see many people who appear visibly overweight. However, rapid urbanization has led to reduced physical activity and sedentary lifestyles for urban Chinese, making these health issues less visible. There is a growing trend of younger-onset diabetes (ages 18–49), with abdominal obesity being the highest attributable risk factor. This risk is increasing fastest among young people in industrialized regions living in high-stress, yet sedentary work environments.

This has given rise to an enormous obesity-related market in China, a topic we covered in 2023 regarding how the weight-loss drug Ozempic took China by storm.

Another factor is a historical lack of awareness. Even today, many people aren’t aware of the exact sugar content in their diets. For instance, many believe that fruit juice is a healthy beverage as long as it is natural and has no “added sugar,” despite being high in fructose.

More subtly, a typical Chinese meal is already highly concentrated with “refined carbohydrates,” which account for 50%–60% of total energy intake (sometimes higher). Many people simply consume more sugar than they intend without realizing it.

This, too, is changing. Since 2023, rising numbers of young Chinese have discussed “low-sugar” diets and “sugar control/abstinence” (控糖/戒糖) on social media. The trend first gained traction among fitness enthusiasts—a small cohort paying close attention to how food affects blood glucose—and quickly spread to the general public.

This awareness extends beyond added sugar to carbohydrates and broader sugar categories, fueling bestsellers like the low-sugar rice cookers mentioned earlier.

Blood glucose monitoring instruments have also become one of the best-selling medical devices on Chinese e-commerce platforms over the last few years. It is no longer uncommon to see urban Chinese wearing continuous glucose monitors, even if they do not have obvious health issues like obesity or diabetes. People are beginning to understand how blood glucose relates to chronic issues such as migraines, acne, and menstrual cycles, rather than focusing solely on weight loss.

The trend gave rise to increasing awareness of sugar intake, not just added sugar, but carbs and broader sugar categories in general, giving rise to new bestsellers like “low-sugar rice cookers” that I mentioned at the beginning of the article.

Blood glucose monitoring instruments became one of the best-selling medical devices in the past few years across online e-commerce platforms in China.

It has also become not uncommon to see urban Chinese in my city wear blood glucose devices, even if they do not have obvious health issues such as obesity or diabetes. People are starting to gain more understanding of how sugar intake and blood glucose are related to other chronic issues, such as migraines, skin acnes, menstrual cycles, and other areas of health, instead of focusing solely on weight loss.

Subscribe now

Implications for investors

Several days ago, the Financial Times reported that China is considering an additional tax on sugary beverages to curb health problems like obesity and diabetes. Although there has been no official confirmation, some publicly listed beverage companies faced a sell-off following the news.

China currently produces some of the cheapest sugary beverages in the world; while over 116 countries have implemented sugar taxes, China does not currently have one in place.

Regardless of the timeline for a rumored “sugar tax,” the “low-sugar” and “no-sugar” trends are here to stay. I believe the primary takeaway is that sugar-free or low-sugar beverages will become a growing necessity for Chinese consumers.

On one hand, awareness of sugar intake is only just beginning to scale. On the other hand, the variety and volume of sugar-free options are not yet saturated. For example, in a Japanese convenience store, it is actually difficult to find a bottled beverage that isn’t sugar-free. But in China, the majority of soft drinks still contain sugar, with only a few options clearly labeled “sugar-free” or “0 cane sugar.”

Chinese households are generally very health-conscious. My empirical observation is that a high percentage of people are willing to sacrifice the “happiness” of sugar for the sake of health, across affluent, middle-class, and low-income groups. Even without tax enforcement, I believe Chinese households will embrace low-sugar drinks with minimal education.

For instance:

Since 2023, Shanghai has piloted “traffic light” health warnings and “Nutri-Grade” labels for sugary drinks, covering over 20,000 stores.

Fudan University research shows that since these policies were implemented, sugary drink sales have dropped significantly. A September 2025 survey of 10,000 residents showed that over 50% now choose sugar-free or low-sugar options.

Our own offline payment data shows that “sugar-free” tea has experienced explosive growth among soft drinks since 2024. Functional drinks, such as electrolyte water and energy drinks popular with fitness enthusiasts, follow closely behind. China’s soft drink market is revealing a significant structural shift toward health-conscious categories.

Sugar-free tea has seen its market share grow from approximately 1.1% in 2021 to nearly 5% by late 2025. Conversely, carbonated beverages have seen a continual drop in market share since 2022.

Specifically, Nongfu Spring (HKG: 9633) is successfully transitioning from its historical identity as a “bottled water company” into a diversified beverage giant.

Subscribe now

Read more

In this newsletter, I’ll walk you through some of my observations from this year’s festivities and share where the potential investment opportunities lie.

Overall trend: Strong demand; the rise of “Chinese aesthetic” in tourism

This year’s tourism numbers are impressive: Domestic tourism during the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday grew 19% year-over-year, reaching 596 million tourists, with tourism revenue increasing by 19% to RMB 803 billion. This means per-tourist spending, averaging around RMB 1,348, remained steady compared to last year. Outbound travel also saw a strong rebound, with a 24% year-over-year increase to 4.8 million travelers.

However, beyond these headline figures, the tourism boom is becoming more structural. The year 2026 may very well be the year when the “Chinese Aesthetic” takes full control of the tourism market.

Subscribe now

What the Spring Festival Gala tells

To understand the social climate in China today, one can’t overlook what happened at the Spring Festival Gala, an event watched by almost every Chinese person, or at least used as background noise. This year, the Gala featured more AI, robotics, and other high-tech elements, which have already been widely discussed. However, what often goes underreported is the increasing presence of foreign-language programs—something that very rarely appeared in recent years’ Gala. This shift signals a change in the social climate, moving away from political focus toward a more open-minded, economy-driven, and everyday-life-oriented vibe.

Most notably, rather than hosting the entire performance in the central television studio in Beijing, the Gala continued its format of holding satellite events across various cities. These events highlighted the unique cultural heritage and innovative economies of these locations, further showcasing China’s diverse regional identities.

During the Chinese New Year, famous tourist cities tend to get crowded, but this year, the Gala program selected cities that are less congested yet still rich in tourism resources or unique culture. Four cities were selected to host the satellite events: Harbin, Yiwu, Hefei, and Yibin, which are expected to drive the tourism sector forward.

The Spring Festival Gala serves as a microcosm of this broader trend: China has been increasingly promoting smaller cities and their tourism offerings, incorporating more intangible cultural heritage, and catering to the growing interest in unique local craftsmanship and cultural heritage. We have been covering this trend since 2024, which explains why smaller and lower-tier cities have outpaced big cities, provincial capitals, and traditional tourist hubs in tourist growth in recent years.

Beyond obvious factors like crowding and rising transportation costs, tourists have developed a genuine interest in “in-depth travel”—exploring the rich cultural and historical diversity of China’s provinces. (I often feel that visiting different provinces and regions in China could feel like stepping into a completely different “country,” each offering countless unique historical and cultural experiences developed and fused over a long history. This vast diversity will continue to fuel curiosity and growth in the tourism sector.)

Investment Implications: Overall, this trend is positive for hotels and airlines. The tourism boom is unlikely to be short-lived. People are genuinely exploring various cities, towns, and cultures, not just indulging in post-pandemic “revenge consumption.”

Subscribe now

Trend 1/4: The rebound of luxury spending

Hainan duty-free sales have seen growth since the official establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port (FTP) last December. In January, Hainan duty-free sales grew by 45%. During the 9-day holiday period, the sales growth slowed to 15% year-over-year, but shopper counts still maintained a steady +20% year-on-year increase.

Outbound travel to Hong Kong also rebounded during the 9-day holidays, largely driven by duty-free shopping and high-end retail.

Investment Implications: The revival of luxury spending could continue this year, partially supported by the rally in the stock market, which could help improve sentiment among middle-class and affluent families. This should also benefit Hong Kong tourism and commercial properties, especially in high-end retail.

There could also be idiosyncratic opportunities, such as Laopu Gold, which benefits from the increase in jewelry spending, the cultural preference for gold in China, and the perceived value retention of gold amid rising gold prices.

Trend 2/4: “Experiential” over physical products

This is a structural trend that I previously explored in our inaugural post this year: 2026 China Equity Outlook. During this Spring Festival, live events, shows, concerts, and “emotional value” consumption continued to trend high.

During the 9-day holiday, Damai (HKG: 1060), China’s leading ticket booking platform, saw the number of performance projects grow 27% YoY. Specifically, Livehouse booking surged 65%, and immersive shows grew over 40%. Live events have become a lifestyle for the Chinese consumer.

“Mood boost” consumption, such as pop toys (潮玩), continues to trend high. Take Pop Mart, for example: without going into detail in today’s post, we still see triple-digit sales growth in January leading up to the 9-day holiday, extending the growth and IP rotation trend explored in our deep-dive previously.

Investment Implications: The rising demand for live events and “emotional” retail should be beneficial to booking platforms and IP-heavy brands.

Trend 3/4: Surge in agentic bookings

Subscribe now

Read more

“Charts of the Week” is Baiguan’s series that features key data points to help you quickly grasp the general state of affairs in China in just a few minutes. We handpick the highlights of the data charts from a variety of sources, analyzing and delivering insights trusted by 100+ top institutional and corporate clients worldwide at BigOne Lab.

Understanding China’s true job market is complex. On the one hand, official data suggests the overall unemployment rate remains steady and healthy. On the other hand, if you live in China, you hear constant conversations about how difficult the job market has become and how salary growth has stalled.

This is a crucial question: gauging the health of Chinese households is essential to determining whether China can successfully transition into a consumption-driven economy, which depends on healthy, organic income growth.

So, what is really going on?

China’s economic structure has been undergoing a quiet transition from “old” to “new” over the past few years. Much of this shift was muted by pandemic news. While headlines consistently mention “industrial upgrading” (产业升级) or “New Quality Productive Forces” (新质生产力), it can be difficult to decipher whether this is actually happening on the ground. Today, we dive into online job postings data to find the answer.

Methodology Note: To map this transition, I classified millions of job postings from major recruitment platforms into six categories: New Productivity & Industrial Upgrade, Real Estate & Related, “Old Tech” & Traditional Manufacturing, Finance, Education, and Others.

The “New Productivity” category tracks the strategic pivot toward sectors like EVs, semiconductors, AI, green energy, biotechnology, etc. “Old Tech” includes industries that grew rapidly over the past decade—such as e-commerce, software, and internet platforms—which have increasingly matured into traditional industries rather than representing the current “cutting edge.” Other categories are self-explanatory.

While some cross-functional roles defy perfect classification, the massive scale of data since 2020 provides a definitive view of the structural transformation occurring over the last five years. (See the footnote for full definitions.)

Subscribe now

Q1: From “old” real estate to “new” productivity: has the transformation happened?

News headlines are swamped with news of China’s struggling real estate market (rightfully so, as listing prices for existing homes have yet to find a bottom). However, a quiet transformation has taken place within the job market. Since 2020:

• The real estate and related industries (the orange area) have seen their share of total recruitment cut in half, dropping from 15% in 2020 to less than 8% by the end of 2025.

• Simultaneously, the “New Productivity” sectors (the blue area) have shown powerful counter-cyclical growth, with their share of job postings climbing from 10% in 2020 to over 15.4% in 2025.

It is no coincidence that the added value of China’s real estate industry fell to only ~6.3% of GDP in 2024 [*]. (In my opinion, this partly explains why Beijing feels less urgency to launch a massive stimulus; real estate no longer influences overall employment as heavily as it did just five years ago.)

Despite the “structural pain” society is currently enduring, this shift proves the underlying logic of the Chinese economy has fundamentally changed. The absolute number of jobs created by the ‘New Productivity’ sectors (an increase of about 300,000 positions) has effectively offset the bulk of the losses in the real estate sector (a loss of about 350,000 positions).

The transformation of the “New” replacing the “Old” real estate is now firmly established in the trend data.

Q2: Why do on-the-ground sentiments feel so cold?

If the overall number of jobs has remained relatively stable and “Hard Tech” is booming, why is public sentiment so gloomy?

The answer lies in structural friction and a perceived “quality downgrade” for the middle class. Real Estate, Finance, and Education—industries that traditionally recruited a significant and highly educated portion of the population—have seen a consistent shrinkage in job postings since 2022, never recovering to pre-pandemic levels. These happen to be the three high-paying industries most favored by the university-educated, urban middle class (the demographic with the strongest voice on social media). These traditional sectors also still serve as a massive reservoir for the labor force, maintaining a share of roughly 32%.

For those who managed to keep their jobs in these industries, salary growth has been optimistic for them.

The new jobs replacing the old ones offer no easy transition. You cannot simply retrain a real estate marketing manager to design semiconductors or engineer hydrogen fuel cells. The booming “New Quality Productive Forces” require highly specific STEM backgrounds (often Master’s or PhDs). Meanwhile, the other side of the job growth spectrum—such as wholesale, retail, and local services—often represents a downgrade in social prestige and stability for university graduates.

This “talent incompatibility” is what creates the profound sense of a “job crisis” on the ground.

Q3: Are there other interesting insights and key takeaways for investors?

If you want to find the next structural growth opportunities in China, follow the hiring.

Trend 1: Consumer internet could soon become a “utility”

The era of hyper-growth for tech platforms and e-commerce—sectors that once defined the ‘cutting edge,’ provided the most sought-after roles for China’s top-tier talent, and made investors filthy rich—is over. When we examine the absolute job gains and losses across sub-industries from early 2020 to early 2026, the data paints a vivid picture of an economy executing a ruthless, structural pivot.

Subscribe now

Read more

First, Alibaba’s Qwen triggered a nationwide frenzy by offering “tea freedom” through a massive milk tea subsidy, sending its Qwen AI app to the top of the charts and creating messes at some milk tea shops as delivery people scrambled for orders.

Not to be outdone, Yuanbao, Tencent’s own AI chatbot, launched a billion-yuan red packet campaign, hoping to recreate the success of WeChat Pay. However, the plot twisted when WeChat, the centerpiece of the Tencent family of products, abruptly restricted the sharing of these promotional links to curb spam and “induced sharing.”

ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0, on the other hand, stunned the whole world by its mesmerizing audio-video co-generation technology, strong character consistency, and director-level scene transition, effectively giving every social media user their own Hollywood-quality production studio.

And Spring Festival has not even started!

At this point, I want to put down some preliminary observations here, if only to make a mental mark for the record amid these rapid, crazy changes that are unfolding at this very moment.

Observation 1: The market rewards the cutting edge, but penalizes the old playbook

If it were a decade ago, Tencent’s Yuanbao red packet campaign would have excited the market. After all, the whole red packet playbook was exactly what ushered WeChat Pay into success a decade ago. However, this time, the campaign has caused much more doubt than excitement. As a result, Tencent’s share price has already dropped more than 15% year-to-date at the time of writing this piece.

Nor is the market very excited about BABA’s milk tea giveaways either. Its stock price has traded sideways despite its Qwen app almost becoming the most actively used AI app in China within an extremely short period of time.

Contrast that with Zhipu AI, believed to be behind Pony Alpha, an open-source coding model that many developers compare to Claude Code in capability. Zhipu also announced its GLM-5 model just now, which sent its shares almost quadrupling only a month after its IPO.

The divergence is striking. In this decade, the old playbook no longer inspires. The market is clearly looking for genuine frontier capability, not user growth engineered by subsidies. Merely having more users, if those users are acquired through incentives rather than through technological excitement, is heavily discounted.

Observation 2: The real market leader is not tradable

It’s also a pity that the company that is arguably leading China’s AI race is not listed.

ByteDance, which has Doubao, currently has the most popular AI chatbot in China and arguably the highest user stickiness. Many users already treat Doubao as a daily companion, almost in the sense portrayed in the film Her. While Qwen may be close in daily active users, much of that still appears subsidy-driven. Doubao’s user base feels more organic and durable, at least at this stage.

At the same time, ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0 has become the global leader in video generation since its recent debut. ByteDance’s trial with AI-native smartphone also inspires imagination. (You can check out a product test of Doubao phone here made by , our partner newsletter.)

Yet ByteDance is not listed. Neither is Huawei, another important AI force.

As a result, even if one believes strongly in the long-term future of Chinese AI, the Hang Seng Tech Index may unfortunately not be the most direct way to express that view at this moment. Core constituents such as Alibaba and Tencent have been weak, and the index has traded sideways.

Observation 3: The great divergence of how AI would impact other industries

As much as there is a domestic divergence in how old and new forces tackle AI, internationally, a significant divergence is emerging in how markets interpret AI’s impact on other industries.

In the US, when Anthropic or Google launched a new model, software and business service stocks sold off sharply. Hundreds of billions in market value could be erased in days. The dominant narrative is that the old industries are at risk of decimation.

In China, sentiment looks different. When major breakthroughs in video generation like SeeDance appear, online literature, film-making, and content platform stocks rally. Even if China’s software sector has not been exceptionally strong, it has not collapsed in the same way as in the West either. And milk tea brands like Guming and Mixue are emerging as the biggest net beneficiaries of Alibaba’s generous subsidies.

Why?

One reason is industry maturity. China’s SaaS industry never truly developed into a large, standardized, high-margin sector comparable to the US. Much of the market remains project-based and customized. Ironically, that lack of maturity could prove resilient in an AI era. Companies built around implementation and consulting may still be needed, while benefiting from lower AI-driven costs.

As for the entertainment industry, China does not yet have a Hollywood-sized creative market to disrupt. When AI improves content creation, investors focus on new possibilities rather than on the elimination of entrenched incumbents.

There may also be a deeper cultural and political layer. In the current Chinese context, it is difficult to imagine technology wiping out an entire industry overnight without at least paying some price. The concept of common prosperity has shaped expectations around these things.

I do not claim to have a definitive explanation here. But this divergence itself is worth watching.

Observation 4: Trust first, commerce later?

The next major milestone in AI, after coding, may be agentic commerce: how AI changes how people transact and live.

Alibaba is positioning itself as the leading global experimenter in this space. As the operator of one of the largest e-commerce ecosystems in the world, it is pushing consumers to shop in an AI-native way earlier than anyone else.

The results so far are mixed, however.

When I tried shopping through Qwen’s agent, the experience proved that AI-mediated shopping is technically feasible. But beyond that proof of concept, it did not feel revolutionary. Which leads me to think that chatting back and forth with a bot to find something to buy may not be the final form of commerce.

By classic internet logic, this is not a problem. “Move fast and break things” has been the motto for the industry since its very beginning. Early user experience can be rough as long as feedback loops are strong and iteration speed is fast.

But it may be too premature to push agentic commerce too aggressively, which leads to a more fundamental question: what do people actually look for when they shop?

For purely utilitarian purchases, such as recurring household goods, automated agents make sense. But much of consumption is not utilitarian. For many high-value purchases, the experience itself is part of the product: walking through a store, browsing shelves, and discovering items serendipitously. I don’t believe these are inefficiencies to be eliminated. For many, shopping is not just a means, but an end in itself.

A better model, intuitively and logically, would be to build trust first.

If users see their AI agents as friends, advisors, or companions, they will naturally ask them for shopping recommendations. Commerce then becomes an extension of trust, not vice versa.

If this theory is true, then agentic commerce does become mainstream, ByteDance, again, may still capture the largest upside. Doubao already has user trust and stickiness. Combined with Douyin’s e-commerce ecosystem, all the essential pieces are in place.

Tencent may also be underestimated. Even if it currently lags in model leadership, it possesses vast behavioral data to eventually build a trustworthy AI virtual assistant as well as a deeply integrated WeChat mini-program commerce ecosystem within to build a complete e-commerce experience.

Alibaba has limited social advantages and does not control the most popular AI companion app right now. It is therefore logical that it plays to its core strength: commerce. Whether that will work is questionable, but it just does not have many alternative strategic choices.

Observation 5: 2026 as the year of mass adoption

The upcoming Spring Festival holiday is shaping up to be another holiday about AI. Chinese AI companies are clearly timing product releases around this period, when users are at home, traveling, and experimenting with new apps.

It is not yet clear who will ultimately win. What is increasingly clear, however, is that 2026 is shaping up to be a year of mass AI adoption in China.

This adoption will go far beyond chatbot novelty. By the end of 2026, it is highly likely that a majority of urban consumers will have completed at least one transaction through an AI agent. Coders will routinely use domestic Chinese coding agents. Video creators will rely on AI-native tools as a standard workflow.

This unprecedented mass experimentation and mass adoption of AI applications, with all of the potential impact and consequences, will provide meaningful lessons for the whole world to see.

This should be our last post before the Spring Festival commences.

Finally, to all our readers, thank you for staying with us through another turbulent year in markets. May the Year of the Horse bring you momentum, milestones, and more exciting breakthroughs in your work and in your life!

Subscribe now