August RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, returning to the expansion zone
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August RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, returning to the expansion zone
The RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI rose to a five-month high of 50.5 in August, indicating an improvement in China’s manufacturing conditions and a return to expansion. However, the latest upturn resembled a breath of relief rather than a sustained rally.
It’s positive to see output bounce back above the 50 no-change mark after July’s dip, and new orders picked up, pushing inventories of raw materials and finished goods higher. New export orders are still in contraction, but the pace of decline has eased. That’s encouraging, yet we shouldn’t get carried away, because external demand looks partly pulled-forward while domestic demand stays soft, so the upside to output may be limited unless domestic demand firms up.
Besides, input prices continued to rise under the “Anti-involution” policy backdrop, and those upstream increases are finally showing up in output prices, breaking an eight-month streak of falling charges. Still, profit trends interpreted from the PMI data showed only a slight recovery and remain under pressure overall.
Notably, the manufacturing sector is helping the recovery, but this rebound is patchy. With weak domestic demand, potentially overstretched external orders, and slow profit recovery, the durability of the improvement depends on whether exports truly stabilize and whether domestic demand can pick up pace.
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