Baiguan Discord Digest | Mid-July 2025 Edition
Discover insights co-created by our community
Welcome to Baiguan’s Discord Digest, where we spotlight the conversations co-created by some of the most curious and professional minds across global finance, China policy, and frontier investing.
In case you’re new here: Baiguan isn’t just a newsletter. It’s a community where equal-minded thinkers meet, debate, and share knowledge that often doesn’t make it to headlines. Today's newsletter curates the most valuable insights from our members-only Discord in the past weeks.
💹 Investment Ideas & China Equities
Haidilao, Gree, Midea: Dividend Isn’t Dead Contrary to the dominant China bear narrative, a few members explored names that are maturing into solid income plays. Haidilao’s core mainland business may no longer be a high-growth story, but its ~6% dividend yield stands out in today’s market. Appliance giants Gree and Haier are also offering attractive yields, bolstered by favorable seasonal demand and potential trade-in subsidies. Midea, meanwhile, is diversifying into industrial automation through KUKA (a German industrial robotics company, in which Midea acquired a majority stake), positioning itself for structural upside.
On Haidilao: "It isn’t especially cheap or expensive. Investing for dividend might make economic sense right now."
Kuaishou vs Bilibili: Who Wins the AI Video Race? Kuaishou's Kling video generator has been quietly turning heads as a monetization machine. Members argued that its advantage isn't just in video quality, but the built-in monetization tools for creators—particularly those targeting grassroots audiences in lower-tier cities. By contrast, Bilibili remains loved for its content quality but faces structural weakness in monetization due to its revenue share model.
"The edge isn't just the quality of the video, but also that Kuaishou has the ecosystem for creators to monetize."
FUTU and Brokerage Cycles FUTU came up again, not just as a retail investor darling, but as a case study in cyclical growth. Some view it as a high-beta stock that follows predictable waves of retail interest in China and Hong Kong markets. Traders discussed the strategy of accumulating on the downswings and selling during risk-on euphoric rallies.
"High-quality company with a top-class product and management team."
Used Car Exports: China’s Next Niche? A niche but fascinating discussion spotlighted the underexplored market of used car exports. With EV penetration rising in China, the question was raised: What happens to the used inventory? Anecdotes from members in the auto business suggest growing demand in Southeast Asia for Chinese second-hand EVs.
"Big opportunity for China to export used cars. It’s not a thing right now yet."
Pinduoduo: Great Company, Questionable Stock? A debate surfaced around whether PDD is shareholder-friendly. The company continues aggressive subsidies and user acquisition, but hasn’t shown a willingness to return capital via buybacks or dividends. A related-party transaction involving a loan to its CEO added further fuel to skepticism.
"They subsidize users with your equity." "Great company, but not necessarily a great stock."
Meituan vs JD vs Alibaba: Instant Retail War. The arms race in China’s on-demand economy is heating up. JD reportedly ramped up to 25 million deliveries per day in a single quarter, challenging Meituan's dominance. But is this just a cash-burn war or something deeper? Some argue Meituan has a moat via its merchant services and Dianping ecosystem, while others fear JD’s scale proves otherwise.
"JD just proved that Meituan business doesn't have a moat. Took JD 1 quarter to do 25m/day."
CATL Blind Box Problem. In the EV space, members highlighted how brand dilution is happening even within top players. Buyers of Li Auto face a "battery blind box" dilemma—receiving either a CATL or a lesser-known Sunwoda battery. That inconsistency is chipping away at consumer confidence, especially as battery brand is increasingly seen as a mark of quality.
"Basic models for Li Auto are basically blind boxes. You either get Sunwoda or CATL."
🏩 Policy, Real Estate & China’s Market Economy
Muted Stimulus Isn’t Weakness. It’s Strategy. Some argue that Beijing’s apparent inaction on stimulus isn’t about a lack of resources, but a deliberate choice to shift accountability to local governments. This "you own it, you fix it" strategy is pushing provincial LGFVs to confront their liabilities, while preserving the central government’s pristine credit profile.
"Short of money is more a policy choice than a reality. The central government is one of the strongest credits in the world."
Hong Kong Property: Slow-Motion Unwind Trouble continues to brew in Hong Kong’s real estate sector. Emperor International disclosed overdue loans, and New World Development narrowly secured refinancing. While some call this a silent bailout, others believe banks are simply managing risk to avoid broader contagion.
"Not so much a bailout. It was expected the banks will allow it to refinance."
Service Economy: From Involution to Evolution. From dentists to spiritual retreats, members are noticing a shift toward underpenetrated, human-centered service sectors. This aligns with Gen Z's emerging preference for careers with emotional rewards, and a broader economic pivot from manufacturing and real estate into soft services.
"These people have the best mental health profile I've seen."
Property Management Stocks > Developers While developers face liquidity crunches, some see opportunities in overlooked names like Greentown and Binjiang Services. Their stable, service-based business models may offer a safer play on real estate than traditional builders.
"High-quality property management firms have stable, service-based revenue."
Housing in China is Not Rational, It’s Emotional. Despite low rental yields and high prices, buying property in cities like Beijing or Shanghai is still perceived as essential. Members noted that few young people can afford to do so without parental support, yet emotional security often outweighs rational investment logic.
"This is subjective. If you can afford to buy a house, you probably would, not so much as an investment."
🏍 China Consumption & Cultural Trends
Yellow Wine Comeback? A trend that sparked curiosity: huangjiu (yellow wine), once considered old-fashioned, is making a comeback among Gen Z. With lower alcohol content and cultural cachet, it offers a nostalgic yet healthy alternative to beer and baijiu.
Busy Ming: TikTok for Snacks. Busy Ming’s in-your-face aesthetic and low pricing model made it a favorite among members watching lower-tier city retail. Its flashy stores sell 5 RMB snacks but look like galleries. This retail model leans heavily on visual experience and impulse buying.
"Less cosmo may just be the key to great commercial success."
Pop Mart Cools Off, Intentionally? Some noticed that second-hand Labubu figures are now trading near original prices. The interpretation? Pop Mart may be intentionally cooling demand by increasing supply, dodging regulatory heat.
🌏 Geopolitics & Macro
Houthi Attacks: Red Sea Trade Routes at Risk. Members flagged a Greek ship sunk by drone fire in the Red Sea. Why it matters: It was carrying Chinese steel to Turkey. If these routes close, it could disrupt flows into the Mediterranean and spike scrap metal prices in Europe.
"This effectively closes the Red Sea for steel shipments from Asia to the Med & Europe. Big deal."
Trump's Tariffs and Global Blowback. The group broke down Trump’s revived tariff agenda—from Chinese solar panels to EU autos. Consensus: mostly optics, but with real downstream consequences.
Taiwan De-risking Narrative Questioned In response to recent U.S. military posture, some voiced skepticism that markets are adequately pricing in Taiwan risk. The semiconductor supply chain remains a soft underbelly.
Want More?
This is just a preview of the best. Most of the best takes—on stocks, policies, or market psychology—happen in real time in the Discord.
Inside, we dive into:
Early trade ideas, often before they appear in the newsletter, plus follow-up discussions on trending stocks
Unconventional but actionable investment themes
Policy developments and local intel rarely covered in English-language media
Thoughtful conversations on how geopolitics and macro forces shape China’s economy
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