China's consumer market: A nuanced recovery (Part II)

Discover the investment potentials in today's complex consumer landscape

The tariff war has recently clouded China's economic growth, raising concerns over exports and increasing reliance on consumption. Combined with shaky consumer confidence, high youth unemployment, and a divided real estate market, the economic outlook has become quite hazy.

Based on our presentation at Morgan Stanley's China BEST Conference Spring Series, this article offers a unique perspective on consumer market recovery. Part I explored how macroelements like the labor market and real estate are setting the stage for this recovery. Now, Part II will focus on the specific industries and companies leading the recovery.

Our perspective spans industries including luxury goods, sportswear, specialty retail, dining, and FMCG sectors. We've closely monitored key stocks like Laopu Gold (6181.HK), Luckin Coffee (LKNCY), Nike (NKE)/Adidas (ADS.DE)/Anta (2020.HK)/Li-Ning (2331.HK)/Lululemon (LULU), POP Mart (9992.HK), Nongfu Spring (9633.HK), EastRoc (605499.SH), Yili (600887.SS), and more.

Luxury sector: Western brands and the rise of domestic "luxury"

Western luxury brands: Stabilization and normalization continue, with clear winners and losers

In the luxury segment, Western brands continue their journey towards stabilization and normalization. The market has clear winners and losers emerging. BigOne Lab's unique mobile payment data sources enable a reliable capture rate of China's offline sales data, providing insights into this dynamic.