The new 'rich people' sports in China
How marathons are driving middle-class consumption in China
Recently, many bloggers and critics have been circulating the same narrative on Chinese social media:
There is an economic term called the "Marathon Cycle," which refers to the period when a country's GDP per capita exceeds $5,000 and continues to rise, leading to a nationwide shift towards sports consumption, particularly in long-distance running events like marathons.
I didn't quite find the source of this economic concept from a credible resource, but China has undoubtedly witnessed an outburst of marathon runners in recent years.
On November 3, just a week before I wrote this post, Beijing hosted the annual Beijing Marathon. The event welcomed 30,000 runners who won the lottery from more than 180,000 applicants. Many joked that China now doesn’t have enough marathon races given the demand from runners.
When the Beijing Marathon, China's first international marathon, was held for the first time in 1981, it attracted just 188 participants, all of whom were professional athletes. Decades later, marathons have become widely popular among amateurs. According to the China Athletics Association, a total of 622 marathon races were organized in 2023, averaging 2 races per day.
The industry and marathon enthusiasts generally consider 2015 to be the turning point. In 2011, there were only 22 marathon races in China, but by 2015, the number had surged to 134 and to 800 by 2017, growing nearly sixfold in just under six years. In 2023, the total number of participants in large-scale road running events across the country reached 6.0519 million.
Sports are the new sexy
Since 2010, Chinese billionaires made wealthy by the rapid growth of the internet and real estate sectors—such as Pan Shiyi, Charles Zhang, and Wang Shi—have all made headlines as amateur marathon runners and mountain climbers. In recent years, although marathons have become more accessible to everyone, they are still largely associated with more affluent groups.
While I couldn't quite trace down the exact source of the "marathon cycle" as an economic concept, the growing popularity of the sport is clearly linked to economic growth. In 2010, China’s GDP per capita was $4,550, and by 2013, it had jumped to $7,000, which coincides with the rapid increase in marathon races. In 2023, the most marathon events in China were held in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Shandong, with 36, 27, 25, and 22 races, respectively. These provinces are also the top four in GDP.
Now, let’s take a quick look at who makes up the main group of marathon runners in China.
According to the China Athletics Association’s 2023 China Road Running Event Blue Book, in 2023, over 6 million people participated in large-scale road running events nationwide. Among male participants, men aged 35 to 54 accounted for more than 50%, while women in the same age group made up over 76%.
Additionally, some jokingly say that marathons are reserved for the "three highs" groups—people with high income, high education levels, and high corporate positions. This concept is easy to understand:
According to data from Guodong Technology's 2023 China Road Running Event Blue Book, last year, 32.13% of marathon participants were employees from government agencies or enterprises, and business managers. Furthermore, 61.17% of participants held at least a bachelor’s degree, 30.21% spent more than 2,000 RMB on sports protection products, and the majority of participants were aged between 30 and 50. [translated from the blog 吴晓波频道]
The middle-aged Chinese, with high income and education levels, are not only the driving force behind sports events but also the main drivers of consumption demand.
According to the same 2023 China Road Running Event Blue Book data, over 30.21% of marathon runners spent more than 2,000 RMB on sports protection products. Additionally, 59.34% of participants spent more than 1,000 RMB on wearable sports devices (such as smartwatches or headphones), and nearly 20% spent between 1,000 and 2,000 RMB. [translated from the blog 吴晓波频道]
Unlike other activities, road runnings—especially marathons—require years of disciplined training and consistent race participation. Not only do participants need to pay an entry fee (for example, the Beijing Marathon registration fee ranges from 200 to 2,000 RMB, and it’s incredibly difficult to secure a spot, leading to the circulation of expensive scalper tickets), but they must also achieve qualifying results in previous races to be eligible for future events. This means that once you're in the marathon races, you'll need to train and compete consistently. For passionate runners, many even pay extra to travel to participate in international or professional-tier competitions in other cities.
To put it another way, you need to be "有钱有闲" (have money and time), a popular slang in China, to become a regular marathon runner. This is even more challenging and "elitist" compared to just buying expensive luxury items or dining at fine restaurants, which used to be trending among the affluent middle class in China. For example, a former sports journalist and amateur marathon runner shared his experience of how much he spent on marathons in his personal blog:
According to the China Athletics Association, the total consumer spending in China’s marathon market reached 28.8 billion RMB in 2018. As someone who participated in two international events and several domestic races that year, my expenses for airfare, accommodation, and equipment exceeded 60,000 RMB (not including international expenses).
According to Nielsen Sports’ 2020 China Marathon Consumer Insights Report, Chinese road runners spend an average of 11,418 RMB annually, mostly on running gear and race expenses. [Translated from the blog 破3日记]
11,418 RMB is nearly 30% of the average annual disposable income in China (39,218 RMB as of 2023), according to the National Bureau of Statistics [source].
In this sense, marathons are certainly not just a wellness trend, but rather a genuine consumption phenomenon in China, with huge commercial potential associated with it.
Some media outlets have calculated the economic impact of the Lanzhou Marathon on the local economy this year.
For example, during the 2024 Lanzhou Marathon, out-of-town participants stayed in Lanzhou for an average of 3 days, with an average spending of 4,333.44 RMB per person during the event. Local participants spent an average of 720.89 RMB each. The total economic impact of participant spending reached 481.35 million RMB.
Data from a third-party evaluation agency shows that out-of-town participants in the Lanzhou Marathon stayed in the city for an average of 3 days, and each participant was accompanied by an average of 3.66 friends or family members. The total number of participating runners was 38,116, with out-of-town participants accounting for 61.15% and local participants making up 38.85%.
...All in all, the direct economic benefit generated by this event for Lanzhou City reached 537.67 million RMB.
In addition to economic benefits, marathons can also generate spillover effects, such as boosting the tourism industry.
For instance, in Wuhan, which hosts the annual Wuhan Marathon, an incomplete count by the organizing committee shows that 53,000 tourists have visited the city due to the "Hanma" event (Wuhan Marathon).
A responsible person from the Wuhan Marathon organizing committee once made the following calculation: "This year’s Wuhan Marathon is expected to generate 1.571 billion RMB in urban benefits for Wuhan, with approximately 557 million RMB in economic impact and 1.014 billion RMB in social impact." [translated from the blog 吴晓波频道]
This post is sponsored by BigOne Lab, our parent company. BigOne Lab proudly announces the introduction of China Mobile Payment dataset, covering high-frequency offline sale performance of brands such as LULU, Hermes, LV, Starbucks, POP MART, Miniso sportswear, luxury, coffee and tea chains and speciality retail sectors that were previously undercovered by data. If you are interested in subscribing, please contact more@bigonelab.com
How this trend affects consumption
Marathons are increasingly becoming more than just a sport; they are now a strategic opportunity to attract affluent consumers. In 2023, the first year after the pandemic, the Shanghai Marathon signed Tiffany & Co. as its official sponsor, inviting the luxury brand to design medals and trophies for the top three finishers.
The flamboyant display of luxury brand logos is no longer seen as particularly classy among the wealthy. Instead, marathon events—associated with resilience and strength but still targeting affluent groups—have become a highly targeted pool for consumer brands in China.
For example, Xtep (1368. HK), the sports brand that sponsors the most marathons in China, had sponsored over 1,000 marathon events by the end of 2022. That year, Xtep reported a revenue of 12.9 billion RMB, a nearly 30% increase year-on-year, with running shoes being the top-selling product.
Whatever the middle class engages in ultimately becomes a battleground for consumer brands.
Similar to marathons, there are other niche sports that are also gaining popularity in China as symbols of a "wealthy and healthy" lifestyle. Twenty years ago, when people talked about "rich sports," golf was almost always the go-to reference, as it was often played in business settings among business owners. But today, a variety of niche sports and outdoor activities, such as camping, skiing, climbing, bouldering, and cycling, are on the rise.
Enthusiasts are spending generously on their hobbies. For example, many cycling enthusiasts invest in modifying their bicycles, and exchanging tips about equipment and accessories has become a popular form of socializing within the cycling community.
Last week, as I was leaving a dinner at Beijing SKP (a commercial complex in Beijing’s CBD), I happened to run into someone who had just cycled away on his newly modified Brompton bike. With all the equipment and accessories, the bike was worth 100,000 RMB (~13,888 USD). The foldable city bike has quietly gained popularity among China's middle-class elites post-pandemic. While it may not be widely discussed on the internet, over time, you’ll notice more and more white- and gold-collar workers in China carrying a Brompton to their commutes in the CBDs every day. I was bittersweet, but this just gives you an idea of how sports have quietly become a kind of substitute for luxury purchases in China.
This trend, however, has been overshadowed by the overwhelming media coverage of consumption downgrades. While people may be shopping less for luxury handbags and watches, what often goes unnoticed is how much they are spending on niche sports and emerging hobbies.
Looking at online sales performance in 2024, premium sports brands actually outpaced their more affordable counterparts. Specifically, On (NYSE: ONON) and Hoka One One (NYSE: DECK) exceeded the overall online sales growth of the sports and health industry, outperforming their peers like Anta (2020. HK), Li Ning (2331 HK) and Nike (NYSE: NKE). Brands such as Lululemon and Arc'teryx (NYSE: AS) also saw strong growth throughout the year.
What does this mean for investors?
Investors should recognize that the sports sector in China continues to thrive, even amidst broader economic challenges. In my view, premium brands are well-positioned to outperform their peers in 2024 and the year to come, with significant growth potential—something that might seem counterintuitive given the overall consumption downgrade narrative. However, despite economic concerns, demand for high-quality sports products and experiences is steadily increasing, particularly among affluent consumers. This group, along with younger consumers in their early 20s (as I’ve mentioned before), remains one of the few segments still spending generously. As a result, it has become a key battleground for luxury and premium brands looking to capture this valuable market.
For those interested in tapping into this market, we also offer offline consumption data for leading brands such as Lululemon, Anta, Li Ning, Nike, and Arc'teryx in mainland China. This data provides valuable insights into their performance and helps investors assess the true growth opportunities in the sector.
Behind the paywall, I will provide year-on-year performance data for the offline sales of the brands mentioned above, up to October 2024. The data insights are drawn from our China Mobile Payment dataset by BigOne Lab, the parent company of Baiguan.new. The data panel covers high-frequency offline sales performance for brands like Lululemon, Hermes, LV, Starbucks, POP MART, Miniso, and more—spanning sportswear, luxury goods, coffee and tea chains, and specialty retail sectors that were previously underreported. If you are interested in subscribing, please contact more@bigonelab.com.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Baiguan - China Insights, Data, Context to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.