Is there any incremental information from this week's econ-focused Politburo meeting?
There are quite a lot, if you care to look closely
This week, a key, twice-yearly Politburo meeting on economic affairs was held. This meeting was closely watched, not least because it was the first one after Trump’s “Liberation Day” declaration of economic war.
To read the Politburo readout correctly, we think it’s essential to compare the text with the last major meetings on the economy, specifically the Central Economic Work Conference held in December (CEWC) and the Politburo meeting held immediately before it.
In this note reserved for Baiguan's paying subscribers, we will examine five major areas where we believe this “April Politburo” has added substantial incremental information compared to the two December meetings.
The keyword here is “incremental”, so we will only look at what was not there previously. The five major areas include:
Added urgency to launch more forceful and more “innovative” monetary policies
Stronger emphasis on stabilizing employment
A continued focus on consumption, and especially the service consumption, likely even with the support of new monetary policy tools
Digging in through preparing for worst-case scenarios and, unironically, openness
More language on supporting real estate and capital markets
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