A panoramic view of Spring Festival consumption
Optimism with caution
Though you may find positive sentiment surrounding Spring Festival consumption, a nationwide and industry-wide recovery hasn't been reached. Instead, diverging trends continue, and price pressures persist in many sectors. In this article, we will provide a comprehensive overview of Spring Festival consumption, identifying several key trends—both long-term and short-term—based on concrete data and firsthand observations:
Service consumption outperformed product consumption—a trend that has persisted in recent years.
Within service consumption:
Travel was extremely popular, both for inbound tourism and for those returning to their hometowns.
The movie Ne Zha 2 topped Chinese film history, entering the global top 30.
Catering: Shanghai benefited significantly from policy stimulus.
Product consumption showed divergence:
Home appliance sales were boosted by policy stimulus, though concerns remain about whether this might frontload future demand and prove unsustainable in the long run.
Robust EV sales.
Gold consumption continued to boom, and luxury brands saw brighter growth, largely due to the early start of the Spring Festival.
Deflation pressure remained, as implied by January's CPI data, but there were some partial improvements.
Technology is revolutionizing traditional Chinese New Year customs in 2025: the humanoid robot's dance at the Chinese New Year gala; Tencent's "Cyber-Gifts" could potentially pose threats to Alibaba's Taobao.
Let's first dive into the overall data to get started!
According to the State Taxation Administration (Baiguan note: in our view, tax statistics are among the most reliable due to their methodology), during the Spring Festival holiday, the daily average sales revenue of consumption-related industries across the country increased by 10.8% compared to the previous year’s Spring Festival holiday. Service consumption grew faster than goods consumption, with service consumption increasing by 12.3% year-on-year and goods consumption increasing by 9.9%.
Specifically, under the support of the “trade-in” policy for consumer goods, the consumption growth rate of home appliances and furniture was high at 166.4%. Demand for tourism and cultural, artistic, and sports services was strong, with increases of 37.5% and 66.3%, respectively. Consumption of grain, oil, and food products also showed a good growth trend, increasing by 18.9%.
Experiential consumption: driven by increased volume and partial spotlight
Spring Festival travel: Diverse options for everyone
The Spring Festival travel rush remains robust this year. According to data from the Ministry of Transport, from January 14 to February 3 (the first 21 days of the Spring Festival travel period), the total inter-regional travel volume reached 5.15 billion person-trips, up by 7.7%. Among them, railway passenger volume reached 260 million, up by 6.7%, and civil aviation passenger volume reached 47.542 million, up by 7.0%.
During the holiday, cross-border travel, small-town tourism, and consumption in hometowns have become highlights of travel.
The fervor of "China Travel"
According to Ctrip's "2025 Spring Festival Travel Summary Report," the overall orders for cross-border travel during the Spring Festival increased by 30% year-on-year. Inbound travel ticket orders increased by 180% year-on-year, and inbound hotel orders increased by over 60%, thanks to China's relaxed entry policies. On December 17, 2024, the National Immigration Administration announced that the stay period for transit visa-free foreigners would be extended to 240 hours (10 days), and the number of ports would be increased to 60. Additionally, transit visa-free travelers are now allowed to travel across provinces in 24 provinces (regions, municipalities) within the permitted areas.
During the 2025 Spring Festival, the top ten source countries for inbound tourists were South Korea, the United States, Malaysia, Singapore, Japan, the United Kingdom, Thailand, Russia, Australia, and France. Short-haul inbound travel orders increased by 130% year-on-year, while long-haul inbound travel orders increased by nearly 120%. Popular destinations for inbound tourists included Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Beijing, Zhuhai, Chengdu, Zhongshan, Harbin, Foshan, and Chongqing. Inbound travel orders for ICH destinations such as Shijiazhuang, Fuzhou, and Xi'an increased by 50%, 52%, and 97% respectively compared to last year's Spring Festival. On Ctrip's overseas platform, tickets for ICH(Intangible Cultural Heritage)-related events like lantern festivals, temple fairs, and drama performances increased by nearly 7.5 times year-on-year.
ICH (Intangible Cultural Heritage) hotspots stand out
At the end of 2024, "Spring Festival—The Social Practice of Celebrating the Traditional Chinese New Year" was inscribed on the Representative List of the Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity. With the "ICH boost," popular ICH destinations such as Shantou, Putian, Kaifeng, and Huangshan saw a 20% to 40% increase in tourism orders during the Spring Festival compared to last year. According to the 2025 Spring Festival Consumption Data Report released by Douyin, orders for ICH-related group-buying products increased by 139% year-on-year, and the number of users purchasing these products increased by 122%.
Hometown return drives consumption in county-level cities
Data from Qunar shows that this year, the hotel booking volume in county-level cities increased by 40% year-on-year. Among them, the booking volume of high-star hotels doubled compared to last year’s Spring Festival, accounting for a higher proportion than that of chain and low-star hotels.
In recent years, there has been a surge in enthusiasm for traveling to lower-tier cities. This is seen in the popularity of Zibo barbecue in 2023, the explosion of Harbin in early 2024, and the year-end cycling tour of Kaifeng by hundreds of thousands of college students in late 2024. This trend is not only due to the restrictions on overseas travel during the pandemic but also driven by people’s curiosity about the broader expanse of China, and supported by the improved infrastructure in lower-tier cities and the enhanced efficiency of local governance.
Box Office: Ne Zha 2 ("哪吒 2") tops Chinese film history, enters global top 30
The National Film Administration reported that the 2025 Spring Festival box office (January 28 to February 4) reached 9.51 billion yuan, with 187 million cinema visits, setting new records. As of February 10, Ne Zha 2 surpassed 1.152 billion USD in total box office (including pre-sales), entering the global top 30 and becoming the only non-Hollywood film in the list (Source: Lighthouse Pro Version).
Ne Zha 2 is an animated film based on traditional Chinese mythology. It tells the story of Ne Zha, a "demon child" who overcomes prejudice and transforms into a hero. In my view, the explosive popularity of Ne Zha 2 can be attributed to several factors:
Riding the wave of cultural consumption and revival of traditional Chinese culture.
Being family-friendly, especially for those with children, contributes to higher ticket sales.
Its value proposition resonated with contemporary young people: while Ne Zha's previous works focused on defying fate and self-struggle, this film emphasizes challenging and even breaking existing systems, defying authority, and seeking true justice. This is undoubtedly an invigorating message for today's weary young people.
Additionally, I recently came across an interesting article by Urban Data Team. They noted that the popularity of Ne Zha 2 also resonated strongly with audiences in lower-tier cities.
Urban Data Team observed that there is a significant difference in movie preferences among people of different urban levels and educational backgrounds. Cities with higher urbanization rates and longer average years of education tend to have a relatively lower preference for Ne Zha 2. In major cities like Shanghai and Beijing, Ne Zha 2 was not the most favored film.In contrast, in the fourth, fifth, and sixth-tier cities, which account for the majority of China's population, Ne Zha 2 had already topped the box office and attendance charts just two or three days earlier. In these lower-tier cities, the screening rate and occupancy rate of Ne Zha 2 were both significantly higher than the relative levels in first-tier cities.
Next week, I am planning to write an article that delves into the underlying reasons behind the immense popularity of Ne Zha 2. These reasons include cultural evolution and dissemination, changes in public values, and advancements in animation technology. Stay tuned for more!
Catering: marginal improvement nationwide, Shanghai boosted by government-issued consumption vouchers
According to the Ministry of Commerce's business data monitoring, during the first four days of the Spring Festival holiday, the sales revenue of key retail and catering enterprises nationwide increased by 5.4% year-on-year. This growth rate is higher than 4.5% during the 2024 National Day holiday but lower than the 12.2% in 2023 and 8.5% in 2024 Spring Festivals. The turnover of key monitored catering enterprises increased by 5.1% year-on-year.
According to the BigOne Lab (Baiguan's parent company)'s exclusive Offline Catering Index, during the first six days of the Spring Festival holiday (January 28 to February 2), the overall increase was 2.0% on a YoY basis. Among them, first-tier cities saw a 10% increase (Shanghai +16% vs. Beijing +3%, with Shanghai's consumption vouchers having a significant stimulating effect), new first-tier cities increased by 3%, and second to fifth-tier cities increased by 1%. Large-scale stores saw a slower growth rate, increasing by 0.8% year-on-year.
Goods consumption: robust EV and home appliance sales, heated gold consumption
Robust EV Sales
On February 1, several new energy vehicle (NEV) manufacturers announced their delivery results for January 2025 as scheduled. XPeng Motors topped the list with 30,400 deliveries, a year-on-year increase of 268%. Li Auto followed closely with 29,900 new vehicle deliveries. ZeroRun ranked third with 25,200 deliveries, up 105% year-on-year. Xiaomi Auto and NIO delivered 20,000 and 13,900 vehicles, respectively.
In addition, Huawei's Harmony lntelligent Mobility Alliance delivered a total of 34,900 new vehicles in January. Specifically, the AITO 9 delivered 12,500 units, the new AITO 7 delivered 8,443 units, and the AITO 5 delivered 910 units. The Luxeed R7 delivered 11,400 units, the new Luxeed S7 delivered 1,088 units, and the Stelato S9 delivered 643 units.
Home appliance trade-in program delivered significant results in the Spring Festival
The trade-in program has invigorated the home appliance market. During the first four days of the Spring Festival holiday, the sales revenue of home appliances and communication equipment at key monitored retail enterprises increased by over 10% year-on-year. As of January 30, the transaction volume of mobile phones during the first three days of the Spring Festival (New Year's Eve, the first day, and the second day) increased by more than 50% year-on-year.
According to data from Suning.com, during the Spring Festival, the foot traffic in Suning stores across the country increased by 80% year-on-year, and the trade-in order volume increased by 92%. Large-screen TVs and smart cleaning appliances have become hotspots for new-quality and high-quality consumption.
In my view, despite the evident policy stimulus, home appliances are durable goods with a long replacement cycle, and this move may have frontloaded future demand, making it potentially unsustainable in the long term.
Gold consumption continues to boom; Luxury brands showed recovery in Jan, but mainly due to the timing difference of the Spring Festival
We have previously mentioned the strong demand for gold consumption on several occasions (Laopu Gold, Gold sales soaring among the young: daily blessings on the wrist, No. 7: The demand for gold as a hedge remains fervent). The heat is mainly due to: 1) the investment and hedge demand driven by rising gold prices and fluctuating China's equity market; 2) the preference of young people for traditional Chinese aesthetics; and 3) supply-side innovation, with brands offering a wide range of diversified and fashionable products (Laopu Gold is a good example).
The Spring Festival has always been a traditional peak season for gold consumption, and "adding gold during the New Year" has become the top choice for many consumers. According to data from the China Gold Association, during the Spring Festival in 2025, gold consumption nationwide increased by 13% year-on-year. Young people have become the main force in gold consumption. According to data from China National Gold Group, in 2022, among the buyers of investment gold bars, those under 30 years old accounted for 35%.
Luxury companies also saw a positive growth trend in January, though mainly due to the timing difference of the Spring Festival (in January 2025 versus February 2024). LVMH highlighted that both Louis Vuitton and Tiffany & Co. achieved double-digit growth in January 2025.
In the following content, I will share the January data on offline sales of major luxury brands in China. Then, we'll take a quick look at how some positive signs are easing the fear of deflation, at least in certain areas. And finally, we will explore how technology is shaking up traditional Chinese New Year customs this year- think humanoid robots in the Spring Festival Gala and Tencent's "cyber-gifts".
These insights are exclusive to our paid subscribers. You can also get free access by sharing us.