This week, Johnny of
and I sit together to talk about several sensitive topics including:[00:58] The US-China Trade truce is on the verge of collapse
[06:01] The misguided US visa policy regarding Chinese students
[12:35] Legendary ex-regulator of drug administration, Bi Jingquan's investigation highlights the risks faced by Chinese reformers
[24:18] Is BYD the Chinese EV industry’s “Evergrande“?
[34:55] The impending financial crisis at a major Hong Kong real estate developer that few people are talking about right now
Curated Transcript
[00:58] The US-China Trade Truce is Fundamentally Fragile and Likely to Collapse
**Viewpoint:** The temporary truce following Geneva talks was never sustainable because the underlying issues extend far beyond tariffs into more complex non-tariff measures.
Johnny accurately predicted this outcome in their previous meeting, noting that "it's never about the tariff in the first place. Tariff is just from day one, from Trump administration's perspective, a means to an end." The negotiations have evolved from quantitative tariff discussions into qualitative issues around rare earth metals, technology restrictions, and state control policies. Robert observes that these non-tariff issues are "hazy" and "hard to reach some kind of conclusion on," making them inherently more difficult to resolve than numerical tariff agreements.
[The rest of the curated transcript, as well as this episode’s audio, is reserved for the paying subscribers of Baiguan]
